Solana Price Breakout to $200 Depends on This Crucial Network Shift

Key Insights:

• Solana price breakout hopes rise as SOL tests $145, but slowing wallet growth raises questions.
• Santiment data shows new weekly wallets dropped sharply from late 2024 highs.
• Strong charts and steady developer activity keep $200 targets in focus.

Network growth, trader positioning, and steady builder activity now shape whether Solana price can push toward $200 in 2026.

Why Solana Price Breakout Faces a Test

Solana (SOL) price breakout debate starts with network use, not charts. Fresh data from Santiment shows a clear slowdown in new wallet creation on the Solana network.

In November 2024, the network added about 30.2 million new wallets in a single week. The most recent reading shows only 7.3 million new weekly wallets.

This drop matters because network growth often supports long price runs. Solana price recently climbed as high as $144 and is testing the $145 resistance zone.

Santiment noted that a clean break above this level will likely depend on whether network activity starts to rise again.

Notably, SOL price moves without user growth can struggle to hold. Fewer new wallets suggest slower onboarding of users, traders, and builders.

This does not mean the network is weak, but it does show momentum has cooled compared to late 2024.

The market is watching to see if this trend can reverse. A rise in new wallets would signal renewed interest across trading, decentralized finance, and related apps.

Without that shift, price gains may rely more on short-term trading flows rather than long-term demand.

Santiment’s view is simple as Solana price can move higher, but sustained strength needs more users coming in.

As SOL price sits just below a major resistance level, this metric has become one of the most important signals for what comes next.

Analyst Sees Setup Strengthening For SOL Price Breakout

While network data raises caution, market structure tells a different story.

Crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa said the Solana (SOL) price chart looks strong and continues to lead among major assets.

He pointed to the four-hour exponential moving averages, which he described as the healthiest they have been since September 2025.

According to the analyst, this setup looks even cleaner than past rallies. He said he is focusing on major assets instead of higher-risk tokens until a clear trend returns.

The analyst also confirmed he is holding a long position on SOL. This view suggests traders see strength building under the surface.

Healthy moving averages often reflect steady buying rather than sharp spikes. That can support higher prices if broader market conditions remain stable.

Still, technical strength alone may not carry SOL to $200. Traders often look for confirmation from on-chain data, volume, and user growth.

The current setup shows confidence, but it remains tied to whether Solana can attract fresh activity.

Developer News Signals Steady Progress Across Solana

Away from Solana price and charts, the network’s developer ecosystem continues to move.

In its first weekly newsletter of 2026, the Solana team highlighted a wide range of updates across finance, tools, and apps.

Among the headline items, Morgan Stanley filed an S-1 with the SEC to launch a Solana ETF.

Wyoming also minted FRNT, described as the first U.S. state-issued stablecoin on Solana.

Ranger Finance’s ICO on MetaDAO saw more than $86 million in commitments.

New launches included Jito’s IBRL Explorer for validator performance, Jupiter Exchange’s JupUSD stablecoin, and Birdeye’s Smart Money tool tracking high profit wallets.

Solana Mobile activity closed its first season with $2.6 billion in volume, nine million transactions, and 265 apps.

It is worth noting that these updates show builders remain active even as wallet growth slows. Privacy tools, stablecoins, exchanges, and lending platforms continue to expand.

Essentially, this consistent work forms the base that could support another growth phase if users return.