Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Support From Liquidity Shift In 2026

BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes recently gave a new reason as to why Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 when other big assets climbed.

In an article titled Frowny Cloud, Hayes said that Bitcoin’s drop wasn’t because of the asset but happened due to shrinking U.S. dollar liquidity. 

According to him, when dollar credit gets tighter, this usually sees Bitcoin fall first as it responds quicker to altered global money conditions.

Hayes used a long snow and skiing analogy to show how markets behave. Just as skiers consider the history of snowfall that has occurred to determine how dangerous the avalanche conditions could get, investors study history, charts, and liquidity cycles to understand asset prices.

Hayes says Bitcoin followed its normal pattern in 2025 by moving with dollar liquidity down, while gold and U.S. tech stocks went up for very different reasons.

Also Read: Bitcoin Rally Continues with Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Predicting Bold $200,000 Price Target

Why Bitcoin Lagged While Gold and Tech Rose

Hayes pushed back against criticism from gold supporters and stock market investors who said the token was the worst-performing big asset of 2025. 

He said Bitcoin acted exactly as expected. When U.S. dollar liquidity shrank, Bitcoin fell. But gold rose because central banks bought more and cut their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

Hayes said what really got the sovereigns concerned was when the U.S. froze Russia’s money back in 2022. Since then, many of the central banks view gold as a safer reserve asset with no counterparty risk.

He added that if gold’s share of world reserves goes back to the levels of the 1980s, prices could go up to about $12,000. He also pointed out that retail investors just have not led this rise in gold, meaning the main buyers are still central banks.

US tech stocks told a different story. With less dollar liquidity, the Nasdaq 100 rose because a lot of government support went into artificial intelligence.

Hayes said both the US and China now see AI as a strategic industry, which brings in money even if it doesn’t meet usual return goals. He thinks this is why tech stocks moved away from Bitcoin in 2025.

Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Signals Liquidity Return

Looking ahead, Hayes expects the U.S. dollar to have more liquidity again in 2026. He named three main reasons: growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, stronger lending by commercial banks, and lower mortgage rates.

He noted that quantitative tightening ended in late 2025 and was replaced by reserve management purchases that add at least $40 billion each month to the system. 

Hayes also pointed to more bank credit for government-backed industries and new support for housing via agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

Also Read: Bitcoin Rally Continues with Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Predicting Bold $200,000 Price Target