Kraken Sees 2026 Crypto Market Shift From Hype To Structure Focus

TLDR

• Spot bitcoin ETFs brought $44B in 2025, but market gains lagged inflows.
• Stablecoin liquidity reached all-time highs going into 2026.
• Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025 while gold rose 65%, per ARK Invest.
• ETF inflows slowed in 2025, weakening institutional momentum.

Kraken’s Global Economist, Thomas Perfumo, stated that 2026 will mark a change in how crypto markets function. He said the market will be shaped more by its structure than speculation, especially with growing institutional participation through U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.

According to Perfumo, nearly $44 billion in net spot demand flowed into bitcoin ETFs during 2025. However, this did not push bitcoin prices as high as expected. Long-term holders were supplying bitcoin, which limited the upside often seen in previous cycles. “The result is a market that absorbs enormous inflows without the reflexive upside seen in prior cycles,” said Perfumo.

He added that bitcoin continues to reflect global risk sentiment, but the ways investors access and influence the market have shifted. ETF flows and digital asset treasury firms now play larger roles in shaping price and liquidity.

Macro Forces Remain Central to Crypto Market Movement

Macroeconomic conditions such as persistent inflation, slower policy changes, and limited growth expectations are now key influences on crypto. Perfumo warned that although markets may appear calm, tighter liquidity could bring volatility.

ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood made a similar observation. She noted that bitcoin’s low correlation with other asset classes supports its role as a diversification tool. In 2025, gold increased by 65% while bitcoin dropped 6%. This showed that macro conditions redirected capital toward traditional assets, despite bitcoin’s fixed supply.

Wood said, “Bitcoin should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk.”

Stablecoin Growth and Regulation Reshape Liquidity

Kraken’s report also mentioned the growing role of stablecoins in providing market liquidity. Stablecoin usage reached new highs, offering more efficient on-chain transactions. At the same time, regulatory efforts in the U.S. may change how liquidity forms in crypto markets.

Legislation such as the GENIUS Act and broader market reforms may give more structure to digital asset markets. Perfumo stated these regulatory moves could decide where future innovation in the crypto space develops.

Meanwhile, ETF inflows slowed in 2025 compared to the previous year. Treasury firms issuing equity faced challenges as market premiums narrowed, which reduced their influence on pushing bitcoin prices higher.

Tokenization and DeFi Tokens May Drive Next Phase

Kraken and analysts from Standard Chartered pointed to tokenization and decentralized finance (DeFi) as possible drivers of new liquidity in 2026. They said this shift will likely move attention from hype cycles toward practical infrastructure development in the crypto sector.

This could change how investors value digital assets, especially in a time when price performance does not always follow inflows. The next phase of crypto, according to these views, may not follow old patterns.

Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler, commented that bitcoin appears undervalued compared to U.S. equities. He said the market might test the $90,000 level again or push toward $100,000, which remains a strong resistance point.

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