2026 Global Insurance Market Outlook: Navigating Polycrisis as RIMS President Manny Padilla Warns of Interconnected Risks

The global insurance market in 2026 is undergoing profound transformation amid a polycrisis — a term capturing the simultaneous convergence of multiple, interconnected threats that amplify volatility and reshape risk landscapes across sectors.

Manny Padilla, the 70th president of the Risk & Insurance Management Society (RIMS) — and its first leader of Hispanic descent — highlighted this dynamic in recent insights. As vice president of risk management and insurance at MacAndrews & Forbes Incorporated, with over 30 years of experience in corporate risk leadership, Padilla brings deep expertise to his role, which began January 1, 2026.

Key Drivers of the 2026 Polycrisis in Insurance

The era is marked by overlapping exposures that no longer operate in silos:

• Climate-related catastrophes — escalating in frequency and severity due to extreme weather events.
• Geopolitical tensions — disrupting trade routes, supply chains, and international operations.
• Supply chain fragility — vulnerable to disruptions from conflicts, tariffs, and logistics issues.
• Persistent cyber attacks — growing in sophistication amid AI advancements and digital reliance.
• Social inflation — fueling higher litigation costs, jury awards, and regulatory pressures.

These elements interact, creating cascading impacts. A single incident can trigger litigation, reputational damage, cyber fallout, and operational halts simultaneously, fundamentally altering corporate risk profiles.

Padilla emphasizes that rising loss frequency and severity are symptoms of deeper change: “Entire regions now face revised catastrophic scenarios, while previously protected industries confront multifaceted threats in one event.”

Challenges for Insurance Buyers and Risk Managers

Organizations encounter tightening affordability, where premiums reflect broad market pressures rather than individual risk quality. Carriers increasingly apply generalized models, placing well-managed risks in the same category as higher-risk peers.

This environment demands a strategic pivot in enterprise risk management (ERM):

• Shift from insurance as the primary tool to a balanced approach of retention, mitigation, and transfer.
• Treat risk as a core governance and capital allocation discipline.
• Prioritize pre-event planning — which Padilla estimates accounts for 85% of effective outcomes — over post-event recovery.

Risk leaders must foster organization-wide alignment on risk appetite, engaging operations, finance, legal, and HR teams to build strategic frameworks. Proactive governance and strong counterparty selection (evaluating carriers’ financial stability and capacity) top priorities.

Broker Consolidation and Intermediary Value

Ongoing mergers in the brokerage sector, plus team transitions, complicate relationships. Risk managers with limited internal resources rely on intermediaries as advocates.

Padilla stresses that true value lies beyond speed and low cost: Strategic brokers deliver deep business insight, proactive underwriter engagement, and robust claims support — especially for intricate, cross-jurisdictional losses.

Padilla’s Vision for RIMS and the Profession

Under Padilla’s leadership, RIMS pushes risk professionals toward greater visibility and influence, promoting cultures that drive innovation, growth, and profitability through disciplined risk practices.

His agenda focuses on global career advancement, professional development, and elevating the discipline amid uncertainty.

The 2026 insurance outlook underscores the need for adaptive strategies in a world of compounding threats. Buyers and professionals who prioritize holistic mitigation, strategic partnerships, and forward-thinking governance will better navigate this challenging landscape.