Trading range and intervention risks – TD Securities

TD Securities’ FX Weekly Dispatch, authored by Jayati Bharadwaj, outlines the changing dynamics for USDJPY as the US Treasury engages in the FX market to support the Ministry of Finance. The report anticipates USDJPY will trade between 152-155 leading up to the Lower House election on February 8, with potential interventions if the rate approaches 160. The report also highlights the risks for JPY shorts in the current market environment.

Market outlook for USDJPY

“We believe that the imminent calculus for USDJPY has changed with the US Treasury wading into the FX market to help the MoF. We can expect USDJPY to trade between 152-155 in the run-up to the Lower House election on Feb 8 and any big push towards the 160 level before then would probably trigger actual bilateral interventions.”

“Accordingly, we expect FX traders to stay on the sidelines for now as JPY shorts become a riskier gamble.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)