Cutting cycle expected to start – ING

The National Bank of Hungary is expected to maintain rates at 6.50% in its upcoming meeting, with a potential rate cut anticipated in February. Analysts at ING note that the market sees a 60/40 chance in favor of a rate cut, influenced by January inflation data. They expect EUR/HUF to stabilize around 385 as the market prepares for dovish pricing.

Focus on forward guidance from NBH

“Today’s meeting of the National Bank of Hungary should be a non-event from a rates perspective. No change at 6.50% is widely expected, but the meeting should be the last one, in our view, before the central bank starts cutting rates in February.”

“The market has unwound dovish bets after December’s inflation and at this point sees February as a 60/40 chance in favour of a rate cut and two 25bp steps for the next four meetings.”

“Therefore, we see EUR/HUF around 385.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)