Silver Price Prediction: XAG Dumps 15% Under $100 on Fed News

Silver trades at $98.93 per ounce as of writing, down 15.53% over the last 24 hours. The drop pushed prices below the psychologically important $100 level and erased a large portion of January’s gains. CoinCodex data shows silver now sits 18.30% below its all-time high of $121.08, recorded on January 29, 2026. 

Over the same period as stated by CoinCodex, silver underperformed the S&P 500 by 15.42% and fell 10.73% against Bitcoin, highlighting a sharp shift in relative performance.

Market Shock Rivals Historic Precious Metals Crashes

Friday’s collapse ranks among the most severe single-day declines in modern precious metals history. The last comparable move occurred on April 15, 2013, when gold plunged 9% in its largest one-day fall in three decades, while silver dropped 11% on the same day. More recently, silver suffered a major shock on December 29, 2025, when it slid 8.7% after breaking above $80. 

That session delivered a brutal 15% intraday swing. Today’s decline exceeds that episode and approaches the extreme dislocations seen during major liquidity stress events.

Policy Uncertainty Triggers Rapid Repricing

Markets reacted swiftly after President Donald Trump announced plans to name a new Federal Reserve Chair on Friday. Speculation around former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who has publicly argued for lower interest rates, introduced uncertainty over future monetary policy direction. 

This uncertainty pressured non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that job gains have cooled and unemployment has stabilized, while stressing that the central bank remains data-dependent and not on a preset policy path.

Profit-Taking Accelerates After Parabolic Surge

Silver touched $120.45 earlier this week, marking a fresh all-time high after seven consecutive sessions of gains. Gold also reached a peak near $5,595 per ounce. These moves capped a powerful rally that saw gold gain over 20% in January, its strongest monthly performance in decades. 

After such rapid appreciation, traders began to lock in profits. Analysts noted that price action reflected repositioning rather than a collapse in long-term interest.

Shifting Macro and Political Tailwinds

Investor demand for precious metals remained firm despite a rebound in the US dollar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the US commitment to a strong-dollar policy, while the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its January meeting. 

At the same time, safe-haven demand found support from global trade frictions and rising geopolitical tensions. Middle East risks escalated after renewed warnings between Washington and Tehran, which kept risk sentiment fragile even as prices corrected.

Technical Signals Point to Digestion Phase

Technical indicators show early signs of exhaustion after silver’s parabolic rise. The monthly relative strength index reached 81 before the sell-off, placing prices deep in overextended territory. Recent charts printed an Evening Star pattern, often associated with momentum cooling. 

Source: GDXTrader Via X

Analysts now track ascending support levels closely. If those levels hold, price action may shift into consolidation. A decisive break, however, could open the door to a deeper retracement as momentum unwinds.

Silver’s dramatic reversal marks a turning point after an extraordinary rally. The market now enters a phase of reassessment, where data, policy signals, and technical structure will shape the next move.