AVAX Technical Analysis Feb 1

AVAX is currently trading at $10.17 and approaching the strong $9.16 support region. Short-term downtrend dominates, but RSI at 28 level gives oversold signal.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

AVAX is positioned at $10.17 with a %6.44 decline in the last 24 hours (range: $9.16 – $10.90). The overall trend continues as downtrend; price remains below EMA20 ($11.94) and Supertrend gives bearish signal ($12.29 resistance). On the 1D chart, a strong support formation is observed at the recent low of $9.16, but in case of breakdown, there is a risk of deepening to $5.91. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 9 critical levels were identified: 1D (2 supports/3 resistances), 3D (1 support/2 resistances), 1W (1 support/3 resistances). These confluences increase the strength of the levels. Volume is at a medium level of $540M, with a decreasing trend in declines, indicating that buyers may enter. Price may react from the $10.12 region after short-term liquidity hunt, but altcoins are under pressure under BTC dominance.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

$9.1600 (Strength Score: 73/100) – This level stands out as AVAX’s most critical buyer zone. Reasons: 1) Strong confluence in 1D and 3D timeframes (order block and fair value gap combination); 2) The low point of the last 24 hours was rejected here with a volume explosion (high volume spike, %20+ buying pressure); 3) Historically tested 3 times (held during 2025 Q4 declines), wick formations signal liquidity collection. There is also support confluence on the 1W chart, indicating that big players (whales) may accumulate long positions after stop-loss hunting. In case of breakdown, invalidation drops below $8.50, leading to downside target $5.9123 (R/R 1:3 potential).

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

$10.1222 (Strength Score: 69/100) – Immediately below the current price, short-term secondary support. Analysis: Price recently received strong rejection from here (pin bar candle formation, confluence with EMA50 around $10.10); marked as demand zone on 1D timeframe, shows tendency to hold in low-volume declines. Breakdown below $10.00 as stop level triggers shorts and brings accelerated move to $9.16. This region is the average of swing lows and overlaps with Fibonacci 0.618 retracement – potential bounce point.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

$10.5212 (Strength Score: 72/100) – Closest resistance, the first barrier price will test. Importance: 1D supply zone (rejected in recent rally, high volume sell-off); liquidity pool before approaching EMA20 ($11.94); 3 historical tests (failure in 2026 January rallies). Volume increase is required for breakout, otherwise high fakeout risk. Alignment with Supertrend $12.29.

Main Resistance and Targets

$11.7152 (Strength Score: 60/100) – Medium-term main resistance, EMA20 and 1W pivot confluence. Why critical: Breaker block on 3D chart, supply imbalance from recent 1-month highs; historical rejections (4 tests, triggered %15+ declines). To reach upside target $14.9478, this must be overcome.
$16.5389 (Strength Score: 60/100) – Long-term target resistance, 1W and 3D major resistance. Strong zone remaining from 2025 peaks, will struggle with low volume; confluence: 1.618 Fib extension and round number psychology. This level is a distant target in bearish scenario, but can be tested with BTC recovery.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

In AVAX liquidity map, equal lows below $9.16 (stop cluster), buy stops above $10.52 (liquidity grab) stand out. Big players (whales according to CEX flows) are accumulating longs in $9.16 demand zone – on-chain data shows %15 net inflow in the last 48 hours. Sell walls expected at $10.52 (order book imbalance). In downtrend, smart money is after $10.52 short squeeze following $9.16 bounce; if invalidation below $9.00, cascade liquidation is triggered. RSI oversold (28.11), reversal potential increases with divergence signal – POC around $10.00 strong base in volume profile.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $79,008 in downtrend (%6.11 decline), Supertrend bearish. AVAX shows %0.85 correlation with BTC – if BTC loses $75,740 support, AVAX breaks $9.16, parallel to $64k BTC at $5.91 AVAX downside. Conversely, if BTC breaks $80,357 resistance, AVAX $11.71 rally may come. BTC dominance rising (caution for alts), key BTC levels: Support $75,740/$64,655, Resistance $80,357/$83,504. AVAX buyers should wait for BTC stabilization. For detailed BTC analysis, check BTC Spot Analysis.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: Holding above $9.16 signals bullish reversal ($10.52 target, R/R 1:2.5); breakdown bearish continuation ($5.91 downside). Near-term $10.12-$10.52 range trade, wait for RSI>35 for bounce. For spot trading follow AVAX Spot Analysis, for futures AVAX Futures Analysis. This outlook is based on market structure, not investment advice – always apply risk management (stop %1-2, position size %2 max).