BTC Technical Analysis Feb 3

Bitcoin has retreated to critical support zones within the overall bear trend; with RSI at 29.71 in the oversold zone, it carries short-term recovery potential, but strong resistances and bearish momentum dominance continue.

Executive Summary

BTC/USD is trading at 78,823 dollars while maintaining its overall downtrend structure. Despite a 1.48% rise in the last 24 hours recovering from 74,604 dollars, it continues to stay below EMA20 and Supertrend is giving a bearish signal. Although RSI is oversold, MACD shows a negative histogram; critical support at 74,600 and resistance at 79,269 levels should be monitored. In a risky environment, short-term bounce takes precedence, with long-term downside targets (57k) in focus.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

Bitcoin shows clear downtrend dominance in higher timeframes (1D, 3D, 1W). Price has fallen below 76,037 dollars—MicroStrategy’s cost basis—for the first time since October 2023 and below 80,000 dollars for the first time since April 2025. In the short term, a 1.48% recovery occurred from the 74,604 – 79,360 range, but the overall structure remains bearish without higher low/higher high breakdown. Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode and forms resistance at 87,903 dollars. Short-term bearish bias will remain valid as long as it stays below EMA20 (85,686 dollars). In multi-timeframe, 9 strong levels detected: 2S/2R on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 1S/2R balance on 1W, supporting downside momentum.

Structural Levels

Upper structure: Moving within a descending channel from recent highs (approximately 97k bullish scenario target). Lower structure: 74,604 dollars (73/100 score strong support), swing low and volume accumulation zone. In case of breakdown, next target around 70k psychological support. Above, 79,269 dollars (82/100 score) channel upper band and pivot resistance; if broken, 83,548 (66/100) can be tested. Long-term structure offers major support around 1W EMA200 in the 60-65k range.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14): At 29.71 in oversold zone (below 30), carries divergence potential – RSI may form higher low while price makes low, short-term bullish divergence signal. MACD: Bearish crossover completed, negative histogram expanding; momentum downside confirmed below signal line. Stochastic %K around 15 oversold, but %D line declining – %50 crossover awaited for recovery. Overall momentum bearish but oversold conditions increase short squeeze risk.

Trend Indicators

EMAs: Price below EMA20 (85,686), far below EMA50 and EMA200 – death cross completed. Supertrend: Bearish flip, trailing stop at 87,903 resistance. Ichimoku Cloud: Price below cloud, Tenkan < Kijun bearish; Chikou Span resistance to past prices. ADX 35+ shows strong trend, -DI above +DI high downtrend strength. All trend indicators exhibit bearish confluence.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports: 1. 74,604 (73/100, swing low, volume support, last 24h low). 2. 78,691 (69/100, local pivot, around MicroStrategy base). 3. 74,000 psychological + 1W support. If broken, 70k/65k cascade risk. Resistances: 1. 79,269 (82/100, strong R1, channel band). 2. 83,548 (66/100, around EMA21). 3. 85,686 (EMA20), 87,903 (Supertrend). Multi-TF confluence: 1D/3D supports in 74k cluster, resistances in 79-83k band. FVGs (fair value gaps) show buy gap at 76-77k, sell gap above 80k.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume at 31.78 billion dollars high levels, but selling volume dominant in downtrend – buying volume low in recent recovery (OBV negative divergence). POC (point of control) around 76,500, weakness increases as price moves away from this level. Delta volume negative, aggressive sellers dominant. Spot volume low compared to futures (%40 spot), institutional selling signal. High-volume decline increases continuation risk; volume increase required for bounce. Check detailed volume data from Spot BTC and Futures BTC pages.

Risk Assessment

From current 78,823, bullish target 97k (+23%, RR 1:2.5 potential), bearish 57k (-28%, RR 1:3.5). Main risk: Support breakdown with cascade decline (to 65k). Oversold RSI allows short bounce (+5-7% to 83k), but trap if MACD/Supertrend remain bearish. Volatility high (ATR 3k+), stop-loss suggestion: Below 74,500 for long, above 79,300 for short. News flow (MicroStrategy decline) may increase selling pressure. Overall risk: High (7/10), limit position size to 1-2%. Bull scenario: 79,269 break + volume; bear: 74,604 breakdown.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

BTC at critical threshold within downtrend: Oversold conditions offer short-term recovery (79-83k), but overall bearish confluence (indicators, structure, volume) signals long-term downside. Strategy: Short bias priority, short at 79k resistance; scalp long if support holds. Watch: 74,604 hold vs breakdown. With professional approach, risk management essential – full picture bearish weighted. News supports selling momentum, patience and discipline key.