Is Strategy (MSTR) Stock a Buy Ahead of Q4 Earnings Thursday?

TLDR

• Strategy (MSTR) reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 5 after market close, with analysts expecting revenue of $119.12 million and a loss of $0.08 per share
• The company recently purchased 855 Bitcoin for $75.3 million, bringing total holdings to 713,502 BTC valued at an average cost of $76,052 per coin
• MSTR stock has dropped over 60% in the past year and 12% year-to-date as Bitcoin crashed below $73,000, its worst decline since November 2024
• Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are currently underwater with BTC trading below the company’s average purchase price for the first time
• Options traders expect an 8.32% stock price move following the earnings report, while analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $437.11

Strategy reports its fourth quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 5, after the market closes. The timing couldn’t be more critical for the Bitcoin-focused company.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

Wall Street analysts expect revenue of $119.12 million, up 1.3% year-over-year. The consensus loss estimate stands at $0.08 per share, compared to a $3.03 per share loss in the prior year period.

The company has missed earnings estimates in six of the past nine quarters. This track record puts extra pressure on tomorrow’s report.

MSTR stock has tumbled more than 60% over the past year. The shares are down 12% year-to-date. At the time of reporting, the stock traded at $129.03, down 7% in 24 hours.

Recent Bitcoin Purchase Adds to Holdings

On February 2, Strategy disclosed a new Bitcoin purchase through an SEC filing. The company bought 855 Bitcoin for approximately $75.3 million.

The average purchase price came in at $87,974 per coin. This acquisition brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 713,502 BTC.

The purchase happened after a volatile weekend in the crypto market. Bitcoin crashed below $73,000 on February 3, marking its worst decline since early November 2024.

The crypto market saw over $660 million in liquidations within 24 hours. Bitcoin led with $112.7 million in liquidated positions. More than 161,000 traders faced liquidations during this period.

Strategy’s average cost basis across all Bitcoin holdings sits at $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin trading around $74,674.14 at press time, the company’s entire stack has fallen underwater.

This marks the first time Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are valued below its average purchase price. However, none of the company’s Bitcoin is pledged as collateral, eliminating the risk of forced selling.

Analyst Outlook Remains Positive

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal recently initiated coverage on Strategy with an Overweight rating. He set a price target of $213 per share.

El-Assal cited the company’s clear focus on Bitcoin as a key strength. He believes Strategy’s capital-raising approach for Bitcoin exposure is effective.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin price swings don’t pose a major threat to the balance sheet. He expects rising adoption of Bitcoin by large investors to support the long-term strategy.

However, El-Assal warned about risks from Bitcoin price volatility, regulatory changes, and potential dilution. These factors could impact the company’s performance.

Strategy uses a metric called market Net Asset Value (mNAV) to compare its market value against Bitcoin’s per-share value. When Bitcoin hit record prices, Strategy’s mNAV stayed well above 1, meaning the company’s enterprise value exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

This premium attracted traders who found it more profitable to buy MSTR shares than Bitcoin directly. But as Bitcoin crashed from October onwards, the mNAV began moving toward 1, offering minimal premium.

The situation raised concerns at MSCI, which contemplated whether companies with over 50% of their balance sheet in crypto assets should remain on its stock indices. On January 6, MSCI announced a delay in implementing any changes, saying it requires further research.

Among 11 Wall Street analysts covering the stock, nine rate it a Buy and two rate it a Hold. This creates a consensus Strong Buy rating. The average price target of $437.11 represents 228% upside from current levels.

Options traders are pricing in an 8.32% move in either direction following the earnings announcement. This expectation reflects the heightened uncertainty around the company’s Bitcoin strategy and crypto market volatility.

Strategy bought 855 Bitcoin for about $75.3 million on February 2 at an average price of $87,974 per coin, bringing total holdings to 713,502 BTC.

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