Analysis: Bitcoin's short-term oversold situation may indicate a rebound. If it falls below the $112,000 support level, it will fall to the $106,000 range.
PANews reported on August 8th that Matrixport's latest weekly report, "Matrix on Target," indicates that Bitcoin has recently entered a period of correction, with weakening market momentum, shrinking trading volume, and persistently low funding rates, indicating a loosening of market structure. With the combined effects of seasonal disruptions in August and external uncertainties, short-term sentiment has shifted significantly to caution. Technically, the $112,000 support level played a role in the initial pullback, but the rebound was weak, and this support level may be tested again. If it fails, market attention may shift to the $106,000 range.
The report further notes that the repricing of US economic growth expectations may be a key factor in the resurgence of Bitcoin volatility. Currently, parts of the US economy are facing a substantial slowdown, with the ISM manufacturing index remaining in contractionary territory, non-manufacturing indicators experiencing limited expansion, and recent employment data experiencing significant downward revisions. Market expectations of a possible September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are gradually increasing, but a clear signal has yet to be released, potentially leading to a continuation of the consolidation trend.
Furthermore, the report notes that some publicly traded companies holding significant amounts of Bitcoin have seen their net asset value (NAV) shrink, potentially weakening their ability to raise funds through new share issuances to increase their holdings. In the short term, oversold technical indicators may suggest a rebound, but the report remains cautious about its sustainability, preferring a continuation of sideways price fluctuations. Investors should patiently await a clear bottom or a return of market momentum.
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