Citi trims outlook on Coinbase stock as price target cut to $400 after sharp sell-off

Analysts at Citigroup lowered expectations for Coinbase stock following a steep pullback in crypto markets and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. regulation.

Citi slashes Coinbase price target after crypto sell-off

Wall Street bank Citigroup has scaled back its bullish stance on Coinbase (COIN), cutting its price target to $400 from $505 amid a broad risk-off move across digital assets. However, the bank continues to see long-term upside despite the stock’s 65% decline from its record high near $450.

In a note to clients released on Friday, analysts cited weaker trading volumes, softer institutional activity and persistent uncertainty over when comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation will pass. Moreover, they described the recent crypto market turmoil as a key factor in dialing back near-term expectations for the exchange.

The new $400 price objective still implies more than a doubling from COIN’s most recent close of $146. The same analyst team had lifted its target to $505 in July 2025, when the Coinbase global stock price was surging toward all-time highs around $450.

Short-term reset but buy rating and high risk stance remain

Despite the downward revision, Citigroup reiterated its buy/high risk rating, describing Coinbase as the category leader among U.S. crypto exchanges. That said, the bank still sees regulatory clarity as the primary lever to reignite investor enthusiasm for the name.

Shares of COIN were up about 6% in pre-market trading on Friday, as crypto assets rebounded slightly from Thursday’s sharp sell-off. During that session, Bitcoin slid to around $60,000, intensifying concerns about volatility and liquidity across the sector.

Citigroup highlighted progress on the CLARITY market structure initiative as the main catalyst for restoring momentum in the stock. The bank’s analysts noted that, in their view, the path of U.S. policy remains more important for valuation than short-term swings in trading volumes or token prices.

Regulation delays weigh on sentiment

The bank now expects Senate negotiations on a comprehensive market structure bill to extend beyond 2026, a timeline that could slow the recovery in risk appetite. However, groundwork on the legislative framework continues, with staff-level discussions and draft proposals still in motion.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently disclosed that the company had withdrawn its backing for a sweeping digital assets bill after identifying provisions that might have harmed consumers and dampened competition. Moreover, he argued that any final framework must balance innovation with investor protection to be sustainable.

The legislative effort has repeatedly lost momentum as crypto and banking lobbyists clash over details such as stablecoin yield and custody rules. Lawmakers from both parties also remain divided on several other elements of the package, complicating the timeline for a decisive coinbase regulation update.

Revenue and earnings forecasts revised lower

Marking current token prices to market, Citigroup analysts led by Peter Christiansen cut their near-term projections for the exchange’s top and bottom line performance. In particular, they reduced Coinbase fourth-quarter 2025 net revenue expectations by roughly 10% to $1.69 billion, which sits about 4% below Wall Street consensus estimates.

The latest Coinbase revenue forecast reflects lower anticipated trading volumes, muted institutional engagement and thinner spreads, as well as a more conservative outlook for retail participation. However, the report also noted that diversification into subscription and services revenue offers some cushion against pure trading downturns.

After incorporating a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on crypto holdings and Coinbase’s equity stake in Circle (CRCL), the team now expects a fourth-quarter GAAP EPS loss of $2.64. This negative earnings profile underscores how sensitive results remain to asset prices and balance sheet revaluations.

Upcoming earnings catalyst and market implications

Coinbase is scheduled to publish its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results after the market close on February 12. The update on Coinbase fourth quarter performance will provide investors with fresh insight into trading trends, fee dynamics and the impact of recent volatility.

Many institutional investors will also scrutinize any commentary around the Citi Coinbase forecast assumptions, particularly regarding regulatory timing and market structure reforms. Moreover, management’s guidance on expense discipline and capital allocation could play a crucial role in shaping sentiment toward the broader Coinbase stock narrative.

Overall, Citigroup’s move to cut its Coinbase price target cut to $400 signals a more cautious stance on near-term performance, even as the bank maintains a constructive long-term view.

However, with regulation delays, earnings revisions and heightened volatility, investors will likely remain focused on policy progress and upcoming results to gauge the next phase of the stock’s trajectory.