XRP Faces Renewed Downside Risk Despite Sharp Relief Bounce

• XRP remains under short-term pressure, struggling to reclaim lost technical ground.
• Overhead resistance and bearish trend lines cap upside, limiting rebound potential.
• Derivatives and spot flows show cautious sentiment, favoring selling over accumulation.

XRP continues to trade under clear short-term pressure as market participants reassess risk following a sharp breakdown. After collapsing from the $1.90–$2.00 range, the token briefly slipped below $1.15 before rebounding. 

That bounce, however, has not altered the broader structure. Instead, recent price action suggests a reaction to oversold conditions rather than a sustainable shift in trend. Consequently, traders remain cautious as XRP struggles to regain lost technical ground on the 4-hour chart.

Bearish Structure Limits Upside Attempts

Significantly, XRP remains below the Ichimoku cloud, which continues to cap upside attempts. The cloud now acts as overhead resistance, reinforcing the dominant downtrend. 

Additionally, short-term and medium-term trend lines slope lower, reflecting sustained bearish momentum. While price recovered toward the $1.30 area, sellers quickly reasserted control near overhead supply zones.

Moreover, resistance levels cluster tightly above current prices. The $1.38–$1.40 region represents the first technical barrier. Beyond that, the $1.52–$1.55 zone aligns with broader trend resistance. 

Hence, any upside extension faces strong selling interest before structural conditions improve. Analysts suggest only a decisive close above $1.52 would reduce immediate downside risks.

Momentum indicators continue to reflect strong bearish control. The Directional Movement Index shows sellers maintaining dominance, while trend strength remains elevated. 

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Consequently, market participants favor selling into rebounds rather than chasing upside moves. Although volatility produced a sharp bounce, momentum conditions show no evidence of trend exhaustion.

Besides momentum, support levels remain fragile. The $1.30 zone now acts as immediate support. 

Below that, the $1.21–$1.15 range holds critical importance. A breakdown through this area would expose the $1.12 cycle low. Analysts warn that a loss of this level could accelerate downside continuation.

Derivatives and Spot Flows Reflect Weak Conviction

Additionally, derivatives data highlights a shift in trader behavior. XRP open interest expanded aggressively during the late-2025 rally. However, it later entered a prolonged contraction phase. 

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Open interest now sits near $2.4 billion, signaling broad deleveraging. This trend suggests traders exited positions rather than opening new directional bets.

Spot flow data reinforces this cautious outlook. Net outflows dominate across most sessions, pointing to ongoing distribution. Brief inflow bursts failed to persist, even during recovery attempts. Moreover, outflows continue near recent lows, indicating limited accumulation interest.

Technical Outlook for XRP Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as XRP trades within a fragile recovery phase on the 4H chart. 

Upside levels sit at $1.38–$1.40 as the first hurdle, followed by $1.52–$1.55, where Ichimoku resistance clusters. A sustained breakout could open the door toward $1.62, with the broader reversal zone resting between $1.77 and $1.92.

On the downside, $1.30 acts as immediate support. Below that, $1.21–$1.15 remains the critical demand zone. A failure there risks a retest of the $1.12 cycle low.

The technical picture suggests XRP remains capped below the Ichimoku cloud, favoring consolidation or renewed weakness. Momentum indicators still lean bearish, pointing to sell-the-rally conditions.

Will XRP Recover?

XRP’s near-term outlook hinges on whether buyers can defend $1.30 and reclaim $1.38–$1.40. A clean move above $1.52 would ease downside pressure. 

However, failure to hold support risks renewed downside toward $1.21 and lower. For now, XRP remains at a pivotal inflection zone, with volatility likely to expand once price exits this range.

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