Most Bitcoin Safe from Quantum Threats, CoinShares Says

Highlights:

• CoinShares reports that just a tiny portion of Bitcoin faces any risk from quantum attacks.
• It noted that most Bitcoin, including 1.62 million BTC, would take centuries to breach.
• Experts warn real quantum threats require millions of qubits, far beyond current technology.

CoinShares shared new research that challenges the idea that quantum computing could quickly threaten Bitcoin. They said only a tiny portion of coins might be at risk, while most will stay safe for centuries, even in optimistic scenarios.

Bitcoin Mostly Safe Despite Small Quantum Risk, CoinShares Says

Christopher Bendiksen, CoinShares’ research lead, added that most Bitcoin would take centuries to crack, and key features like the 21 million supply cap and proof-of-work stay secure. His comments came as debates grew about whether quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s security. Bitcoin now holds about $1.4 trillion in value, so people take the risk seriously. However, CoinShares stressed that the threat affects only a small fraction of coins, not the entire network.

CoinShares’ study found that only 10,230 BTC out of about 1.63 million are in wallets with public cryptographic keys. These wallets could, in theory, be targeted by a powerful quantum computer. Bendiksen said that just over 7,000 BTC are in wallets holding 100 to 1,000 coins, and about 3,230 BTC are in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 coins. At current prices, this equals roughly $719 million, which would act like a normal large trade, not a market shock.

Most Bitcoin, around 1.62 million BTC, is in wallets with fewer than 100 coins. Bendiksen added that even with optimistic quantum advances, cracking these wallets would take about a thousand years.

Bitcoin Security Against Quantum Threats

Concerns about quantum computing come from algorithms like Shor’s, which could break elliptic-curve cryptography, and Grover’s, which could weaken SHA-256 hashing. Bendiksen explained that these algorithms are mostly theoretical and cannot change Bitcoin’s 21 million coin limit or bypass proof-of-work.

He also said that the most vulnerable coins are the unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), which are from the “Satoshi era” and have never been moved. Their public keys are also exposed. Other big players in the industry also agree with him. Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back said that people are exaggerating the quantum threat and that they are decades away.

Bendiksen noted that a real attack would need millions of fault-tolerant qubits, far more than Google’s 105-qubit quantum computer, Willow. Not all experts agree. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, called quantum computing a possible existential threat and urged Bitcoin developers to plan upgrades soon. His view contrasts with the more optimistic outlook from CoinShares and others.

However, CoinShares states that the risk is largely theoretical. Bendiksen pointed out that the computing power required makes a possible attack in the near future impossible. The debate is ongoing, but it has been found that only 10,230 BTC, or less than 1% of the analyzed coins, are vulnerable.

CoinShares tells investors that quantum computing is a future challenge, not a danger to Bitcoin now. The report adds that there is enough time to track progress and take steps to protect Bitcoin before any real risk appears.