After betting $23.3 million on whether to stay or leave, why did NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo's investment in Kalshi cause public outrage?

Author: Zen, PANews

At 4:00 AM Beijing time on February 6th, one of the most turbulent trade deadlines in NBA history finally came to a close. Amidst a dazzling array of trade news, the most talked-about free agent—Milwaukee Bucks' star player Giannis Antetokounmpo—ultimately chose to stay with his original team after two months of trade rumors and back-and-forth negotiations.

At the same time, event contracts surrounding "Giannis Antetokounmpo's future" on the prediction market Kalshi platform also began to settle. These contracts have accumulated over $23.3 million in trading volume, making them the highest-traded single NBA event contract besides those related to "NBA championship outcomes."

Just when people thought the trade deadline had passed and Giannis Antetokounmpo's series of controversies could finally come to an end, he unexpectedly "took his talents to Kalshi," transforming himself into a shareholder of the platform. Having long gained high exposure through trade rumors, he ultimately signed a commercial partnership under the spotlight. This behavior has sparked dissatisfaction among many fans.

In a way, it's like when another top NBA star, LeBron James, solemnly announced before the start of last year's season that he would announce "The Decision 2.0," making it seem like he was about to retire, but in the end, he announced an advertisement that was more like a joke to the fans: "I'm going to take my talents to Hennessy."

But for Giannis Antetokounmpo, what's worse than LeBron James promoting Hennessy is that his collaboration with Kalshi, which is considered by most fans as an "alternative betting platform," is not just a matter of advertising exposure and brand public relations, but also concerns sportsmanship, fair play, and conflicts of interest.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kalshi's experiences resonate: both rose from being undocumented immigrants to becoming top stars.

Giannis Antetokounmpo's real name is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Chinese nickname for him comes from the fact that his name is too long and has too many letters, so fans in the sports community gave him the nickname "Antetokounmpo" or "Letter Brother," which gradually spread.

The NBA is never short of inspiring stories, and Giannis Antetokounmpo's underdog tale is a prime example of drama and legend. Born in Greece to parents who were undocumented immigrants from Nigeria, Giannis was ineligible for Greek citizenship due to his birthright citizenship. His parents struggled to make ends meet, raising their five sons alone.

At the age of 13, the tall and athletic Giannis Antetokounmpo began playing basketball. Through hard work and exceptional talent, he became one of Europe's most dazzling basketball stars by the age of 18. He attracted the attention of several top European clubs and subsequently drew numerous scouts from the NBA.

When Giannis Antetokounmpo prepared to travel to the United States to participate in the 2013 NBA draft, he was essentially undocumented. After a series of meetings between his agent and the Greek government, and with the strong support of then-Minister of Sports Giannis Ionidis, he finally obtained Greek citizenship on May 9, 2013. On June 27, he was selected 15th overall in the first round of the NBA draft by the Milwaukee Bucks, successfully entering the NBA.

Giannis Antetokounmpo's philosophy of life, in his own words, is that "the most important thing is the spirit of perseverance." Since entering the NBA, Giannis has transformed himself into an All-Star and a superstar through consistent hard work and a relentless pursuit of improvement. Since 2019, he has consistently been a strong contender for the league's best player. Today, he holds two MVP awards, led the Bucks to their first NBA championship since 1971, winning the Finals MVP, and boasts numerous All-NBA selections and All-Star honors.

From humble beginnings to becoming a top player, the Kalshi platform has a similar story. After its founding in 2018, Kalshi spent six years in seclusion, exploration, and struggle before finally shedding its non-compliant "blacklisted" status and gaining recognition from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become a regulated exchange.

The "struggle experience" of the Kalshi platform and Giannis Antetokounmpo's personal journey have a certain resemblance, which may be one of the reasons why the two parties were able to reach a cooperation agreement.

The NBA's proactive acceptance of betting has opened Pandora's box.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the first NBA star to have a public interest in Kalshi, but he is not the first public figure in the league to get involved in prediction markets.

In November 2025, the NBA reviewed the entry of a startup called Mojo Interactive Inc. into the prediction market because its founders were Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez, owners of the Minnesota Timberwolves. According to Mojo CEO Vinette Balara, the company began trading sports-related contracts during the NFL season last fall, but had not yet been involved in NBA game trades.

In response, an NBA spokesperson stated that the league understands the Timberwolves' two shareholders each hold minority stakes in Mojo, but are not involved in any of the company's day-to-day operations. "We are reviewing this arrangement to verify its compliance with league regulations." The spokesperson also emphasized that NBA teams and league personnel are prohibited from trading NBA or WNBA contracts on any prediction market platform.

The NBA has a relatively lenient policy regarding whether team owners hold shares in betting companies, as long as they don't personally oversee operations related to NBA betting. For example, Patrick Dumon, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, is the president and chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sands, the world's most renowned casino and hotel group. The two Timberwolves owners have also assured the NBA that they will fully comply with established NBA policies. While they are justifying their operations, they are also revealing that Pandora's box has been opened.

"The internet is full of comments, and I decided to make my voice heard... Today, I join Kalshi and become a shareholder." Giannis Antetokounmpo's announcement of joining the league further complicates the relationship between the NBA and the betting market. Among global sports leagues, the NBA is the most proactive in commercializing its betting partnerships, willing to embrace incremental revenue while also being more inclined to manage risks through compliance clauses.

From a rules perspective, since the NBA and the Players Association signed a new collective bargaining agreement in 2023, NBA players have had a wider and more flexible reach in the business world. The league even allows NBA players to participate in sports betting and recreational marijuana businesses, with the only restrictions being that "the investment must be a passive investment" and "the player's shareholding cannot exceed 1% of the betting company" (50% for marijuana brands).

Therefore, setting aside the debate over whether prediction platforms constitute betting, even if they fall under the category of betting, Giannis Antetokounmpo's partnership with Kalshi does not violate league rules. This is why a Kalshi spokesperson only revealed that Giannis's shareholding did not exceed the 1% limit, without disclosing specific shareholding figures. Before Giannis, LeBron James partnered with the betting company DraftKings in 2024, serving as an ambassador for the NFL and some non-NBA games. However, James's partnership remained at the level of a brand ambassador, lacking the depth of Giannis's involvement.

In contrast, the NFL, another top-tier commercial sports league, has taken a stricter stance on similar partnerships. Giannis Antetokounmpo's signing has raised speculation about whether other NFL players might follow suit. An NFL spokesperson responded that the league's players are not permitted to own shares in prediction market companies.

In an era of prediction and gambling, how can fairness, ethics, and trust return?

The news of Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming a shareholder of Kalshi immediately caused a stir on social media. However, his core fanbase largely opposed him. People began questioning how much money a billionaire would need to feel it was worthwhile.

"A player embroiled in massive trade rumors also owns a stake in a betting market, allowing people to place bets on whether he will be traded—this is a huge conflict of interest," independent sports journalist Joon Lee believes. He argues that this collaboration goes far beyond a player advertising for a sports betting company. He also unexpectedly discovered in a Barron's report that Kevin Durant appears to be an investor in Kalshi.

Previously, fans mostly saw endorsement deals, which were essentially advertising businesses and didn't involve equity ties. But Giannis's "shareholder status" this time has pushed the issue into a more sensitive area of ​​conflict. Even a passive, minimal stake still makes him a "stakeholder," let alone in a startup valued at tens of billions of dollars.

In the cooperation statement, Kalshi emphasized that Giannis Antetokounmpo would be prohibited from participating in any NBA-related trades. However, the real risk remains. Fans are not optimistic about Giannis's willingness, ability, and transparency in self-regulation. Many fans have even begun conspiracy theories, suggesting that Giannis himself may have been involved in trades concerning his future. Given the contradictory statements Giannis made before the NBA trade deadline, some speculate that he was manipulating insider trading and manipulating fans.

Today, the NBA is deeply intertwined with the betting industry, and fans are already living amidst various odds and statistics. This has exacerbated the incentive for insider trading, leading to a quiet collapse of trust in sports.

At the beginning of this NBA season, the Portland Trail Blazers head coach was arrested on suspicion of illegal gambling; Miami Heat player Terry Rozier was arrested on suspicion of manipulating betting using insider information about NBA players. This situation, where new scandals could erupt at any time in the NBA, seriously erodes fans' confidence in sports ethics and their trust in the motives behind the games.

Another consequence of thoroughly financializing sports is that, in an environment where betting is ubiquitous, fans will project more game suspensions, rotations, injury recovery times, and even a post-match interview as variables that "may affect the market."

This is precisely the most challenging aspect of the prediction market era: its financial logic, in turn, rewrites how sports narratives are appreciated. Exciting matches no longer capture the full attention of fans, and inspirational stories like Giannis Antetokounmpo's no longer resonate. People are now only concerned with where the "Greek Freak" will go next, when he'll retire, and how much money they can make off him.

In an era of gambling and prediction markets, doubts and controversies cannot be quelled by self-justification. The more difficult challenge lies in restoring fairness, ethics, and trust.