COMP Technical Analysis Feb 10

COMP is trading in a critical squeeze zone at $16.46; although the oversold RSI (23.51) signals recovery, the bearish MACD and Supertrend maintain the downtrend. This situation keeps both bullish and bearish scenarios equally likely and requires traders to watch the levels carefully.

Current Market Situation

COMP price is positioned at $16.46, experiencing a -3.12% drop in the last 24 hours and squeezing in the $16.30-$17.05 range. Volume remains low at $5.88M, indicating limited volatility. Technical indicators are predominantly bearish: although RSI at 23.51 is in oversold territory, MACD confirms selling pressure with a negative histogram. Price is trading below EMA20 ($20.05), and the short-term trend is downward. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and the $21.24 resistance level forms a strong barrier.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/0 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Key supports are $14.6900 (score: 76/100) and $16.2800 (67/100), resistances are $17.2432 (76/100) and $20.0371 (66/100). Although the overall trend is downtrend, oversold conditions increase the likelihood of a short-term bounce. The market is unaware; there are no prominent catalysts in recent developments, so technical levels are in the foreground.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

For the bullish scenario, the $17.2432 resistance (score 76/100) must first be broken with strong volume. This breakout should be confirmed by RSI jumping above 30 and MACD histogram turning positive. In the short term, EMA20 ($20.05) should be tested to seek a trend reversal; Supertrend turning bullish provides additional confirmation. Breaking 1W resistances (around $20) in MTF shows buyers entering. A +50% volume increase and BTC stability can trigger this scenario. Oversold RSI lays the groundwork for a natural rebound; traders should watch candle closes holding above $16.46. Post-breakout momentum surge could bring a quick rally, but early entries are risky.

Target Levels

First target $20.0371 (previous EMA20), then $21.24 Supertrend resistance. With strong momentum, the next stop is $27.0900 (score 13, fib extension level). This level tests the trendline on the 1W chart. Risk/reward ratio from current price is around 1:2.5; invalidation is a close below $16.2800. Follow current charts from the COMP Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a volume-backed break of the $16.2800 support (score 67/100). This is confirmed by deeper negative divergence on MACD and RSI dropping below 20. If Supertrend remains bearish and distance from EMA20 increases, momentum turns to selling. BTC downtrend (Supertrend bearish) increases pressure on altcoins; if BTC $69,250 support breaks, chain reaction seen in COMP. If low volume persists, liquidity hunts pull supports lower. In MTF, look for bearish candles on 1D before testing 3D supports ($14.69). Traders should see closes below $16.46 as invalidation.

Protection Levels

First protection $14.6900 (score 76/100, strong support), if broken then around $12 intermediate level, final target $5.3336 (score 22, long-term bottom). These levels align with 1W supports. Risk/reward ratio close to 1:3; invalidation is a close above $17.2432. For futures, monitor COMP Futures Analysis and keep stop-losses tight.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bullish, daily close above $17.2432 + volume increase; for bearish, close below $16.2800 + BTC weakness. Confirmation signals include RSI divergence (upward for bullish, downward for bearish), MACD zero line crossover, and Supertrend flip. Volume profile is critical: Low-volume moves carry fakeout risk. Traders should watch candle formations on 1H/4H charts (bullish engulfing vs. bearish breakdown). In both scenarios, early invalidation levels ($16.28 for bull, $17.24 for bear) are essential for position management. Market is neutral; news flow (DeFi developments) could shift balances.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $69,904 in downtrend with Supertrend bearish; this gives a caution signal for altcoins. COMP is highly correlated with BTC (generally +0.8%); if BTC breaks $69,250 support, pressure on COMP below $16.28 increases. Conversely, if BTC reaches $71,977 resistance, COMP bullish scenario strengthens. If BTC dominance rises (strengthening against alts), bearish scenario stays in focus. Key BTC levels: Supports $69,250/$65,786, resistances $71,977/$77,936. COMP traders should monitor BTC chart in parallel; decoupling is rare.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

COMP at critical juncture: Oversold conditions support upside, bearish momentum supports downside. Watchlist: $17.2432 breakout (bull trigger), $16.2800 breakout (bear trigger), RSI 30/20 crosses, volume spikes, and BTC $69K movement. MTF levels (11 strong points) determine decision points; use invalidations in every scenario. Let this analysis help develop your own decisions – market is dynamic, update continuously. Access detailed data from spot and futures pages.