BTC Momentum Stalls as Capital Inflows Weaken, Fed Minutes Add Policy Uncertainty

Key Takeaways

• Despite BTC printing a new ATH at $124.4K last week, realized cap growth peaked at just +6% per month, materially softer than +13% during prior breakouts, which highlights fading demand intensity.
• BTC has pulled back -9.2% from $124.4K high last week to $113K; with the market unable to sustain momentum despite lighter profit-taking from holders.
• BTC futures OI remains at $67 billion, altcoin OI peaked at $60 billion before -$2.6 billion washout. ETH OI dominance is at its 4th-highest on record, with perpetual volume dominance hitting an ATH of 67%.
• Unlike prior ATHs, realized profit-taking volumes were muted, implying softer buy-side absorption rather than intense sell pressure.
• A neutral-to-hawkish tone from the Fed as the majority of members support holding rates, while some members are considering cuts in September. Labor market concerns are rising, but inflation risks still dominate Fed’s risk calculus.