Trading Moment: Ahead of CPI, AI panic intensifies; Bitcoin consolidates at a bottom, unlikely to replicate the "Chinese New Year rally".

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The current macro market is experiencing a profound confidence crisis triggered by AI. The narrative has shifted from "AI frenzy" to "AI panic." Investors are no longer focused on who will benefit, but rather on which industries will be disrupted and replaced. Thursday saw a broad sell-off in financial markets, with US stocks losing $1 trillion in market capitalization . Cisco plunged 12% after issuing weak profit margin guidance. The Nasdaq fell over 2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.57%, breaking below its 50-day moving average, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 50,000 mark. All seven major tech giants declined, with Apple falling over 5%, wiping out approximately $202 billion in market value in a single day. Amazon's stock, after eight consecutive days of decline, officially entered a technical bear market on Thursday, having fallen 21.4% from its high. Industry insiders expect Nvidia's earnings report on February 25th to be a significant catalyst for the AI ​​sector.

The "survival anxiety" brought about by AI is spreading from software stocks to a wider range of industries. Following SaaS, insurance, and wealth management, the commercial real estate and logistics industries have become the latest victims . CBRE and JLL, among other commercial real estate companies, saw their stock prices fall by more than 25% in two days, while logistics giant CH Robinson plummeted by 14.5%. Investors are worried that AI automation will compress commissions and replace some business operations.

This panic triggered a liquidity crunch, causing even safe-haven assets like gold and silver to be affected. Spot gold plunged over $200 at one point during the session, closing down more than 3% and falling below the $5,000 mark, while silver plummeted by about 11% to around $75. Funds flowed into US Treasuries seeking safety, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling back to around 4.100%. Furthermore, today is the last trading day for US stocks before the Chinese New Year , and the market is focused on tonight's expected 2.5% CPI data , hoping to find clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path amidst the volatility. Currently, the market generally expects a rate cut in July.

Bitcoin is currently struggling to trade within the $60,000 to $72,000 range, constrained by heavy supply pressure from the $82,000 to $97,000 range above. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode points out that the market is caught between the "true market average" of approximately $79,200 and the "realized price" of approximately $55,000, and without an extreme catalyst, it may experience a prolonged period of consolidation. A FLAME LABS research report further analyzes that the shutdown price for S19 series miners is between $75,000 and $85,000, and for S21 series, between $69,000 and $74,000. The $52,000 to $58,000 range, which combines the 200-week moving average and the miner shutdown price line, forms a structural bottom with extremely high confidence, although the extreme physical bottom for the S23 model is as low as $44,000. Analysts such as Tony Research and Titan of Crypto predict a bottom may appear in the fourth quarter of 2026 or October, with target prices of $40,000-$50,000. Rekt Capital warns that failure to recover the 200-week EMA (approximately $68,300) will lead to accelerated bearishness, while William Clemente and Frank A. Fetter believe the Mayer Multiple indicator shows the current price is in a historically favorable buying range. Astronomer and Altcoin Sherpa are focusing on the effectiveness of the $60,000-$65,000 support level.

Ethereum's performance was relatively weak, failing to hold above $2,000 and hitting a low of $1,745. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart pointed out that ETH ETF holders are in a worse position than Bitcoin, with the current price well below the average cost benchmark of around $3,500. In terms of technical analysis, Man of Bitcoin believes ETH is in a downward B wave, with key support at $1,832; a break below this level would target $1,600. Lennaert Snyder also holds a bearish view, targeting $1,866. StefanB is even more pessimistic, predicting that this decline is too sharp to form a V-shaped reversal, with the bottom likely appearing in April next year, and the price potentially falling to the $1,006-$1,333 range. However, not all views are so pessimistic. Analyst Rod points out that the price is forming a bullish descending wedge pattern, with a short-term target of $2,250. Cointelegraph analysis suggests that institutional demand and the resilience of on-chain indicators could support a price rebound to $2,400.

Solana is also facing significant pressure. Analysts such as Fade and Altcoin Sherpa warn that it is in a late-cycle correction phase, and if it breaks below the key support level of $60, it could further retrace to $50 or even lower. Regarding the entire altcoin market, analyst Inmortal believes that due to extremely fragmented capital , 99% of altcoins may never reach new all- time highs. For Mene, GEM DETECTER data shows that last month, 99% of the 180,000 traders on the PumpFun platform made less than $500 in profit, and 42% were in a loss-making state. Furthermore, Coinbase , a market bellwether, released its fourth-quarter earnings report showing a 156% increase in trading volume for the year, but a net loss of $667 million due to high operating expenses and investment losses, putting pressure on its stock price. Meanwhile, CEO Brian Armstrong has sold over $550 million worth of company stock in the past nine months, further damaging market confidence.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on February 13)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $66,256 (down 24.33% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $46.81 billion.

• Ethereum: $1933 (down 34.83% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $19.09 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 10.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, BRA, ME, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.95% / 51.05%

• Sector Performance: The crypto market generally declined, with GameFi, Meme, and AI sectors all falling by more than 2%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 83,137 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $204 million. This included $83.04 million in BTC liquidations, $37.42 million in ETH liquidations, and $9.73 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$410 million

• Ethereum ETF: -$113 million

• SOL ETF: +$2.7041 million

4. Today's Outlook

• U.S. Labor Department: Non-farm payrolls will be released on February 11, CPI data will be released on February 13.

• Binance will delist the spot trading pairs ACA, CHESS, DATA, DF, GHST, and NKN on February 13th.

• FTX: The registration date for the next allocation is February 14th, with a $2.2 billion reduction in disputed claims reserves to fund the allocation.

• Caixin: The disposal of assets in Qian Zhimin's money laundering case involving 60,000 bitcoins has reached a stalemate; a hearing will be held on February 16.

• US January CPI year-on-year: Previous value 2.7%, expected value 2.5% (February 13, 21:30)

• The Hong Kong Stock Exchange, as well as exchanges in South Korea, the United States, and Vietnam, will be closed for the Lunar New Year holiday (February 16).

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: River up 17.2%, Pi Network up 4%, POL (formerly MATIC) up 3.8%, Toncoin up 3.7%, and Sei up 3.5%.

5. Hot News

• Coinbase announces $39 million increase in Bitcoin holdings

• Aave Labs has proposed transferring 100% of its protocol revenue to the DAO in exchange for operating funds.

• Coinbase released its Q4 financial report: a net loss of $667 million and a 20% drop in revenue.

• Lighter and Circle reach a USDC deposit earnings sharing agreement

• The Bhutanese government sent 100 BTC, worth $6.77 million, to QCP Capital.

• Coinbase CEO sells approximately $550 million worth of Coinbase stock in the past year.

• Binance has confirmed that the SAFU fund has completed the purchase of the final batch of 4,545 BTC, bringing its total BTC holdings to 15,000.

• Ethereum Holdings Report: Over 60% of total supply is held in ETH2 deposit contracts; Rain Lohmus is the largest individual holder.

• Alameda's bankruptcy administration distributed over $15 million in SOL (Social Security) to creditors.