JPMorgan Predicts $77K Rebound on Mining Reset

Bitcoin trades at approximately $66,467 as of February 13, 2026, down 1.77% in the last 24 hours and marking a steep retreat from its all-time high of $126,080. The crypto market faces headwinds from broader risk-off sentiment, with BTC market cap at $1.33 trillion.

Investor caution is heightened amid uncertainty over US macro data and global equities, creating additional downward pressure on digital assets.

Current Price Action and Key Levels

BTC hovered between $65,757 and $67,661 over the past day, reflecting ongoing volatility. Analysts eye $60,000-$72,000 as a defensive range, with $55,000 realized price as deeper support amid macro pressures.

Short-term holders realized losses on 28,000 BTC moved to exchanges, signaling capitulation. Momentum indicators suggest BTC could linger in sideways trading before testing lower support zones.

Liquidations Add to the Pressure

Recent market swings triggered significant liquidations, exacerbating downside moves. While not at historic peaks like the $19B tariff-shock event, recent waves exceed $2.5B in BTC positions alone, mostly longs unwound in thin liquidity.

Weekend thinness amplified drops, with BTC falling over 6% to $78,396 before rebounding slightly. Upcoming US CPI data and options expiry could spark further cascades, adding to trader uncertainty.

JPMorgan’s Take: $77K Mining Cost as Key Support

JPMorgan slashed its Bitcoin production cost estimate to $77,000, down from $90,000 since January, positioning it as a potential price floor. This metric has historically supported BTC during downturns, acting as miner breakeven. Network difficulty plunged 15% YTD, the sharpest since China’s 2021 mining ban due to hash rate drops from unprofitable operations shutting down.

Difficulty auto-adjusts biweekly to keep 10-minute blocks, easing pressure on survivors who capture more rewards. JPMorgan expects costs to rebound as hash rate recovers, with efficient miners gaining share in a “natural selection” process.

Prolonged trading below $77K risks further capitulation, lowering aggregate costs via self-correction but temporarily weakening network security. Surviving operators benefit from higher block win probabilities, bolstering resilience. Analyst sentiment suggests careful monitoring of miner exits and large whale activity to anticipate market swings.

Institutional Bull Case

Despite current pain with BTC at $67K below breakeven, PMorgan stays bullish on crypto for 2026, forecasting inflows led by institutions over retail. Regulatory wins like the CLARITY Act could unlock capital by clarifying rules. The bank anticipates tokenized assets and blockchain growth driving a $67B market by 2031.

Miner dynamics create equilibrium: inefficient exits pave way for stronger networks. Traders should monitor hash rate recovery and Fed signals, as $77K offers structural support amid deleveraging, while institutional adoption remains the key catalyst for sustained upside.