In the prediction market, the real cost of being one minute late: A study of gold entry windows for different events.

Author: Hubble AI

For prediction market traders, the biggest pain point is often not "not knowing", but "being too late".

When we see breaking news, our instinctive reaction is usually to verify it: "Is this news true?" or "Is it a rumor?" This caution is a virtue in traditional investing, but in a binary options market like Polymarket, it can be an extremely expensive hidden cost.

We call this cost the "confirmation tax".

The PolyHub team reviewed 2,023 on-chain transactions from Polymarket in an attempt to answer a quantitative question: How much alpha (excess return) do you sacrifice to obtain 100% certainty of information?

The data revealed a more brutal truth than we anticipated: in the most liquid breaking news events, 96% of the information advantage was absorbed in the first 10 minutes. This means that when you spend just one minute verifying the veracity of news, you've already handed over the vast majority of your profits to those willing to take the risk or who have faster access to information.

This article does not instill anxiety, but only reconstructs the "golden entry window" for different types of news events by reviewing on-chain data from three typical markets.

The conclusion is brutal and simple: in the market, time is an exponential function of money. The later you enter the market, the smaller the remaining profit you can capture, and the rate of decline often far exceeds most people's imagination.

I. Defining the Indicator: What is "residual profit potential"?

To quantify the cost of "late entry," we use a simple metric:

For a contract that ultimately settles to $1 (YES):

• If you enter at $0.20 , you have $0.80 of space remaining .

• If you enter at $0.90 , you only have $0.10 left in your account .

This is the money left on your table. Our research found that this money doesn't decrease linearly over time, but rather evaporates exponentially.

II. On-chain Retrospective: Three Different "Decayation Curves"

1. Sudden, deterministic situation: Only "blind rush" is possible; "confirmation" is impossible.

• Case Study: Maduro's Arrest (Maduro out by January 31, 2026?)

• Features: Physical event + instant official confirmation.

• On-chain data restoration:

0-1 minute (golden window): Within 60 seconds of the information shock, the average transaction price is only $0.56 , which means that the remaining profit potential is as high as $0.44 (44%).

1-5 minutes: Just a few minutes later, a large amount of funds poured in, and the remaining space quickly dropped to 0.12 .

10 minutes later: The price stabilized at $0.97, and the Alpha was exhausted.

Trading Insight: In these markets, the half-life of alpha is less than 2 minutes . If you try to wait for mainstream media "in-depth reports" to confirm the information, you are actually providing exit liquidity for those who entered in the first minute. There is only one strategy here: sacrifice certainty for an entry point, provided the risk is manageable.

2. Game Theory Correction Type: Rather than relying on speed, rely on "signals".

• Case Study: Silicon Valley Bank Acquisition (Will SVB be acquired?)

• Characteristics: There is no single breaking news; it consists of weekend negotiations, rumors, and market expectation revisions.

On-chain data restoration:

• First 6 hours (observation period): Despite it being Monday morning, prices remained between 0.61 and 0.64 , indicating market hesitation.

• 6-12 hours (confirmation period): The price jumps in a step-like manner, from 0.64 to 0.94.

Trading Implications: The decline in this type of market is "step-like." The gold trading window can last from 0 to 6 hours. During this time, you don't need to be quick; you need to look for "confirmation signals" that can change market consensus (such as rumors of a breakdown in negotiations or large buy orders from Smart Money).

3. Priced type: Buy and immediately take over.

• Case Study: TikTok Ban in the US

• Characteristics: The event itself has been highly anticipated over a long period of time, and there is huge market liquidity.

On-chain data reconstruction: In the 60 minutes before and after the ban officially took effect (T0), the price remained stable at around 0.84 , with almost no alpha generated.

Trading lesson: For highly anticipated institutional events, T+0 trading is not the starting line, but the finish line. Entering the market at this point offers no informational advantage, only the risk of "selling the facts."

III. Practical Suggestions: Build Your "Entry Decision Tree"

Based on the above data, we suggest that traders, upon seeing news, should not rush to place orders, but instead take 5 seconds to determine the type of event before matching the corresponding strategy:

Conclusion

In market prediction, a one-minute hesitation does not correspond to the passage of time, but rather to a dramatic collapse in the risk-reward ratio.

Next time you face major news, ask yourself this question:

"If I enter the market now, am I acting as a hunter to acquire Alpha, or as prey to provide liquidity?"