Yes: Most 2025 tokens trade below TGE, key drivers
Most tokens launched in 2025 are now trading below their token generation event (TGE) price. Based on data from Memento Research, roughly 85% of the cohort has fallen since listing, underscoring how post-TGE performance has diverged from pre-launch expectations.
The dominant drivers are elevated fully diluted valuations (FDVs) at listing, thin circulating float, and aggressive emission schedules that expand supply into tepid secondary-market demand. Where utility is unproven or product-market fit is early, the initial hype curve fades quickly, leaving valuations to reprice toward observable fundamentals.
High-FDV launches have been particularly fragile. According to LKI Consulting, more than 90% of 2025 tokens that listed above a $50 million FDV declined, with nearly three-quarters dropping over 60% within four weeks, an outcome they link to overvaluation, poor liquidity design, and distribution imbalances.
Scale effects also mattered. As reported by Binance Alpha, 2025 closed with 221 token launches, 105 graduations to Binance Futures, and an average airdrop value of $1,076 per user, activity that expanded the supply of new assets and likely raised the bar for sustained post-listing demand.
What this means for investors: valuation, unlocks, utility risk
The pattern suggests TGE pricing often bakes in optimistic adoption curves. In practice, assessing FDV against hard traction indicators, active users, retention, on-chain revenue, and cash margins, helps clarify how much execution is already “priced in” on day one. A small circulating float at a very high FDV can magnify downside once natural sellers (early backers, market makers, airdrop recipients) meet limited organic demand.
Token unlocks and vesting schedule analysis is now a core risk lens. Large cliffs, back‑loaded insider allocations, and dense monthly unlocks can increase realized supply precisely when speculative liquidity recedes. Reading the formal vesting calendar and correlating it with liquidity venues and market-making arrangements provides a clearer picture of near-term supply pressure.
“TGE isn’t early anymore,” said Ash Liew, founder of Memento Research. In other words, valuation discovery has increasingly shifted to private rounds and pre-listing markets, so secondary buyers may be accepting more execution and distribution risk than in prior cycles.
Utility risk remains central. Tokens that list before their networks demonstrate persistent user demand, defensible unit economics, and credible value accrual mechanisms tend to struggle once promotional activity normalizes. Clear, transparent disclosures around token sinks/sources, fee flows, and governance powers can help markets separate durable utility from purely promotional usage.
For contextual background at the time of this writing, Coinbase Global (COIN) was quoted around $161.52 on NasdaqGS delayed quotes, reflecting ongoing volatility in listed crypto-exposed equities; such conditions can amplify, but do not determine, post‑TGE repricing dynamics.
Key data and definitions: TGE, FDV, unlocks
A token generation event (TGE) is the point at which a project’s token is created and typically first distributed to investors, contributors, and the public. TGE price often anchors initial market narratives, but secondary trading rapidly reprices tokens to reflect float, demand depth, and perceived execution risk.
Fully diluted valuation (FDV) equals token price multiplied by total supply (including locked and unissued tokens). High FDV with limited current utility or revenue can imply heavy expectations for future growth, while a small circulating float can delay, but not avoid, eventual alignment between price and fundamentals as unlocks occur.
Token unlocks and vesting schedules govern when locked allocations, team, investors, ecosystem funds, airdrops, enter circulation. Cliffs create stepwise jumps in supply; linear vesting emits steady sellable supply. Mapping unlock calendars against liquidity conditions and adoption milestones helps explain why many 2025 tokens fell below TGE despite strong early attention.
| Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve risk. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The publisher is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of reliance on the information contained herein. |
