Larger refunds are expected in US tax returns in 2026 compared to previous years. According to a note from Wells Fargo strategist Ohsung Kwon to CNBC, this development could increase risk appetite for digital assets and tech stocks favored by retail investors. A wave of approximately $150 billion in refunds, especially from high-income consumers, is forecasted to flow into stock markets and BTC detailed analysis markets. Kwon stated that this liquidity could head towards retail-focused stocks like BTC, Robinhood, and Boeing.
Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Tax Refunds
US President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted on July 4, 2025, triggers larger refunds with $1.6 trillion in federal spending cuts. This law reduces the tax burden while increasing cash flow to consumers. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard emphasized that fund flows depend on market sentiment, noting that inflows to crypto assets could increase in a positive momentum scenario.
BTC Price and Current Technical Indicators
Currently, BTC price is at 67.383,75 USD, trading down -0.58% in the last 24 hours. RSI at 34.16 is in oversold territory, but the overall trend is downward. Resistance above EMA 20: 72.238,52. Supertrend giving bearish signal.
| Support Levels | Score | Distance | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1: 62.909,86 USD | 70/100 ⭐ | -6.64% | POC, Swing Low |
| S2: 60.000,00 USD | 67/100 ⭐ | -10.96% | Fibo 0.000, Donch |
| Resistance Levels | Score | Distance | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1: 78.145,00 USD | 64/100 ⭐ | +15.97% | Fibo 0.382, Ichimoku |
| R2: 67.490,42 USD | 62/100 ⭐ | +0.16% | D |
These levels indicate recovery potential with liquidity inflow from tax refunds.
Whale ETH Purchases and Smart Money BTC Shorts
Whales bought $41.9 million worth of Ether (ETH) in 22 wallets last week. According to Nansen data, smart money traders took a net short position of $107 million in Bitcoin. Smart money positions are dominant on the Hyperliquid exchange.
Smart money trader positions through the Hyperliquid exchange, top tokens. Source: NansenHow ETH Developments Affect the BTC Market
Breaking news: BlackRock applied for its new staked Ethereum ETF to receive 18% of staking fees. Claims are circulating that Peter Thiel left the ETHZ tokenized jet engine project ETHZILLA. This boosts ETH demand while carrying rotation risk to BTC. Related coin ETH detailed analysis.
Hive Loss in BTC Mining Sector
Bitcoin mining company Hive incurred a net loss of $91 million due to accelerated depreciation but increased its hash rate. This shows the BTC network’s strength is maintained, while miners’ liquidity needs could be relieved by tax refunds. Watch BTC futures.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/us-tax-refunds-could-boost-btc-risk-appetite
