Bear Market Confirmed? On-Chain Data Points to Deeper Bitcoin Correction

Ju argues that the current downturn is being driven largely by institutional distribution, reversing the strong accumulation phase that defined much of 2025. In his view, recovery will likely require either a deeper price reset toward the $55,000 realized price level or a prolonged period of sideways consolidation lasting between six and twelve months.

One of the most significant warning signs is the reversal in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows. In early 2025, ETFs were aggressive buyers, absorbing roughly 46,000 BTC. That trend has now flipped. In early 2026, ETFs have reportedly become net sellers, offloading around 10,600 BTC.

This shift represents more than routine portfolio rebalancing. It signals a cooling of institutional appetite that previously acted as a strong price floor. Without consistent ETF inflows, the market has struggled to sustain upward momentum.

Capital Inflows Stall

Ju also highlights stagnation in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap – a metric tracking the total value of coins based on their last moved price. According to him, this indicator has flattened, suggesting that fresh capital is no longer entering the ecosystem at a meaningful pace.

He describes the current environment as “unpumpable,” meaning even large buy orders fail to produce sustained rallies. Without new liquidity, price rebounds tend to fade quickly.

Several technical zones are now under close watch:

• $55,000: Considered a major support level based on the average acquisition cost of multiple investor cohorts.
• $70,000 to $60,000 range: A breakdown below the 365-day moving average increases the probability of further downside into this region.

A decisive move toward $55,000 would align Bitcoin closer to its realized price, historically a zone where long-term bottoms tend to form.

A Different Kind of Bear Market

Unlike previous cycles that saw rapid 50% drawdowns, Ju believes this phase may unfold differently. He argues that Bitcoin’s investor base has matured. Large holders – including corporate treasuries such as MicroStrategy – are unlikely to trigger panic selling waves.

Instead, the market could experience extended sideways movement, gradually absorbing supply rather than collapsing in a single dramatic move.

Another concerning development is the contraction in stablecoin liquidity. For the first time since 2023, circulating supply of Tether (USDT) has declined. Historically, shrinking stablecoin liquidity has coincided with bearish phases, as fewer sidelined dollars are available to re-enter crypto markets.

Combined with ETF outflows and stalled capital growth, the liquidity backdrop adds weight to the bear cycle narrative.

What Comes Next?

If Ju’s assessment proves accurate, Bitcoin may face either a deeper corrective move toward $55,000 or an extended consolidation phase lasting up to a year. While the structure of this downturn may differ from past crashes, the underlying message remains clear: institutional behavior and liquidity conditions now play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

For investors, the coming months could define whether this cycle marks a typical mid-cycle reset – or the beginning of a longer recalibration phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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