The Supreme Court ruling could trigger more than $175 billion in tariff refunds.

PANews reported on February 20th that economists at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania's budget modeling department said on Friday that more than $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could be at risk of being refunded if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that President Trump's massive emergency tariffs are invalid. Leslie Boehler, a senior economist at the Wharton School's budget modeling department (PWBM), said they arrived at this estimate based on a bottom-up forecasting model. This model uses tariff rates broken down by product and country to analyze specific tariffs implemented by Trump, including those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump has consistently touted the revenue generated by the tariffs, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating approximately $300 billion annually over the next decade. However, estimates show that if the court rules against Trump, a significant portion of the tariffs may need to be refunded. The $175 billion refund would exceed the combined $127.6 billion in spending by the Department of Transportation in fiscal year 2025 and the $44.9 billion by the Department of Justice.