Key points:
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Bitcoin can reverse its latest slump to hit new all-time highs in the next four months, based on historical performance.
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Research says that the outlook for Bitcoin between now and Christmas is “positive yet less volatile.”
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The current dip may be “frontrunning” traditional September BTC price downside.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be looking at average gains of 44% by Christmas as analysts play down the impact of a deeper BTC price correction.
Research from network economist Timothy Peterson, released on X this week, predicted “positive” performance for BTC/USD in Q4.
Bitcoin analysis plays with $160,000 target
Bitcoin traditionally sees its weakest gains in September, a month that BTC/USD has never finished more than 8% higher.
Despite that, Peterson, who regularly compares performance over multiple bull markets, remained optimistic.
“Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%,” he summarized.
That average upside would put Bitcoin at $160,000 by the last week of 2025, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.
Peterson acknowledged that such expectations are more a guideline than a rule, with various nonconformant years over Bitcoin’s lifetime.
“However, I think some years do not have market/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic years,” he concluded.
Bitcoin Q4 performance comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/XBitcoin “frontrunning” standard September blues
Others are unfazed by the current BTC price weakness, which has seen the lowest levels since early July return this week.
Related: Bitcoin Q2 dip similarities ‘uncanny’ as Coinbase Premium flips green
Trader Donny told X followers that BTC/USD is “frontrunning” a traditional September downside.
“The scale is different — but the outcome is the same. Much higher,” he forecast while comparing price action to the 2017 bull market.
Donny added that he saw BTC/USD copying gold after a period of lag, a classic relationship that has continued to play out in recent years.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-can-still-hit-160k-by-christmas-average-q4-comeback?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
