ETH Technical Analysis Feb 22

Ethereum’s market structure is trapped in a downtrend; while the recent LH/LL formation continues, a BOS above $1,993 could signal a bullish change.

Market Structure Overview

Ethereum (ETH), despite showing a slight 0.31% increase over 24 hours at its current price of $1,978.31, exhibits a clear downtrend in its overall market structure. Instead of Higher Highs/Higher Lows (HH/HL), the Lower Highs/Lower Lows (LH/LL) pattern dominates; the swing high around $2,107 has not been broken in recent weeks, and the price remains below EMA20 ($2,109.95). Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and resistance is positioned at $2,346.98. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels form critical thresholds for trend continuation or change. RSI at 35.29 is approaching the oversold region while MACD shows a positive histogram, but it is not strong enough to alter the structural bearishness. As long as the market maintains the LH/LL structure, the bearish bias will remain dominant; an upward BOS is awaited for CHoCH (Change of Character).

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, the formation of an HH/HL structure is essential; holding above the $1,973 swing low is positive for now, but breaking $1,993.6917 (66/100 score swing high) and $2,107.8466 (76/100 score main resistance) is required for true bullish continuation. A positive histogram in MACD and RSI’s potential to rebound from 35 could signal short-term recovery. If price breaks above the psychological $2,000 level, the structural target of $2 could be reached. However, these may remain only corrective moves without invalidating the current LH/LL structure. Monitor these levels closely for ETH Spot Analysis.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is confirmed by LH/LL: Rejected from the last swing high at $1,993.6917, with lows at $1,973.0200 (62/100) and $1,907.0000 (64/100) sustaining the decline. Price is below EMA20 and Supertrend is bearish; in a bearish breakdown, a drop to the $1,900s, even to the structural target of $1, is possible. The 24h range is squeezed in the narrow $1,967-$1,995, signaling trend continuation without increased volatility.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) is the key to trend change. For bullish BOS: A close above the $1,993.6917 swing high, followed by retest and breakout of $2,107.8466 is required. This disrupts LH/LL, enabling a transition to HH/HL and confirming CHoCH. Bearish BOS is a close below the $1,973.0200 swing low; this targets $1,907 and strengthens the downtrend. In MTF, 1W resistances ($2,100+) are critical for bullish invalidation, while 1D supports ($1,900-) are key for bearish continuation. Once these levels are surpassed, leveraged positions can be considered via ETH Futures Analysis. Market structure education: BOS changes the trend bias by breaking the last swing point – an upward BOS is awaited for the current bearish setup.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Latest Swing Highs

The most critical swing highs: $2,107.8466 (76/100 score, main resistance – the heart of the downtrend, remaining intact keeps it bearish). $1,993.6917 (66/100 score, short-term test level – high rejection risk near current price of $1,978). These highs form the LH pattern; a breakout targets the $2,346 Supertrend resistance.

Latest Swing Lows

Swing lows act as supports: $1,973.0200 (62/100, immediate support – break triggers panic selling). $1,907.0000 (64/100, strong MTF support – confirms LL, opening path to $1,800s below). These lows prevent HL formation; holding leads to sideways action, breaking accelerates the downtrend.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $68,086 is in a downtrend (24h -0.10%), with Supertrend bearish and rising dominance posing risks for altcoins. If BTC supports at $67,524/$64,323 break, ETH could be pulled to $1,900s; if resistances at $68,221/$71,045 are surpassed, ETH could rally to $2,100. ETH/BTC pair is structurally dependent on BTC – as long as BTC maintains LH/LL, ETH’s bearish bias persists. If BTC drops to $60,000, ETH’s structural target of $1 activates.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominates, BOS levels must be monitored. Bullish BOS ($1,993+) for trend reversal, bearish BOS ($1,973-) for continuation. RSI/MACD divergences may signal corrective rallies, but EMA and Supertrend remain bearish. MTF strong levels (12 total) anticipate volatility increase – hold at $1,907 leads to sideways, break leads to downtrend. Educational note: Market structure is dynamic; HH/HL is bullish, LH/LL is bearish – always track the latest swings. Short-term: Break below $1,967 range is bearish, above tests $2,000 bullish. Long-term: 1W structure requires $2,107 BOS for reversal.