Expert Says Bitcoin Now in ‘Stage 4’ Bear Market Phase, Warns BTC May Hit 35K to 45K Zone

Bitcoin has entered what analyst Doctor Profit calls Stage 4 of a six-phase bear market. He said the structure indicates recurring liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and human behavior under stress. The framework follows Bitcoin’s drop from $125,000 highs to near $60,000 within weeks.

Bitcoin in Stage 4 of Bear Market 

According to Doctor Profit, Stage 1 was between $115,000 and $125,000, when euphoric buying dominated. He said extended sideways trading masked excessive leverage and extreme greed. Notably, late entrants believed risk had disappeared as bullish predictions increased.

However, Stage 2 began once Bitcoin lost the $100,000 psychological level. The analyst described that breakdown as swift and calculated. He cited the October 10 crash, which triggered the largest liquidation event in crypto history within hours.

Stage 3 followed with what he called the most brutal phase. Bitcoin plunged from $97,000 in January to $60,000 in February, a 50% drop in 30 days. He noted nearly half of Bitcoin’s market capitalization evaporated during that span.

Now, he places the market in Stage 4. This phase features prolonged sideways action within a defined range. Doctor Profit said this period exhausts participants rather than shocks them. Moreover, he described it as a weak-hands selling zone. On-chain data, he added, shows rising short-term holder capitulation in recent days.

He expects a breakdown below the range in coming months, not weeks. For now, he placed buy orders between $57,000 and $60,000, anticipating a short-term bounce. However, he maintains broader downside targets.

35K to 45K Zone Identified as Final Capitulation

Doctor Profit initially projected a $50,000 to $60,000 bottom when BTC’s price was at $120,000. In January, he revised that range to $40,000 to $50,000. With current macro data and visible stress in liquidity markets, he now identifies $35,000 to $45,000 as the ultimate bottom scenario.

He labeled Stage 5 as total fear and capitulation. Bitcoin, he noted, can drop 50% to 70% from its all-time high before panic peaks. Stage 6 would then combine volatility with structural stabilization. 

He said whales accumulate heavily during that period. Retail traders, meanwhile, often call for extreme targets and miss the bottom.

Analysts Highlight Liquidation Risks and Key Levels

Crypto Tice pointed to historical BTC crashes of 84%, 77%, and 70%. However, he stressed that structural trends, not percentages alone, define cycles. He added that institutions continue building exposure and regulatory frameworks advance. Moreover, he noted long-term supply tightening despite volatility.

Meanwhile, Captain Faibik said Bitcoin bulls still defend the weekly EMA200 near $68,000. He expects a potential bounce toward $80,000 from that level. Analyst Ted provided liquidation data. He said $9.37 billion in shorts would liquidate if Bitcoin rises 20%. However, a 20% drop would liquidate $2.24 billion in longs.