Bitcoin Still Under Pressure as Capitulation Phase Continues

The 7-day EMA of Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) Net Realized Profit/Loss plunged to -$1.24 billion per day on February 6, before moderating to roughly -$0.48 billion per day in the most recent reading.

While the intensity of realized losses has eased, the broader regime remains negative, indicating continued stress among recent buyers.

The data from Glassnode shows that short-term holders are still realizing losses on aggregate, even as the daily pace of capitulation cools.

Capitulation Spike Followed by Partial Stabilization

The sharp drop to -$1.24B/day marked one of the most aggressive realized loss events in the current cycle. Historically, spikes of this magnitude occur during high-volatility drawdowns when newer market participants exit positions under pressure.

The subsequent moderation to -$0.48B/day suggests that forced selling has slowed. However, the fact that the metric remains deeply negative indicates that losses are still being realized rather than profits.

In prior cycles, extended periods of negative STH net realized profit/loss have aligned with base formation phases rather than expansion periods.

What This Means Structurally

Short-term holders are typically the most reactive segment of the market. When their aggregate realized losses expand sharply, it reflects widespread stress and capitulation behavior.

A few structural points stand out:

• The market recently experienced a peak loss intensity at -$1.24B/day.
• Loss realization remains ongoing at -$0.48B/day.
• The broader regime remains in negative territory.

Historically, capitulation phases often precede stabilization, but only once loss intensity compresses and transitions toward neutrality.

Base Formation Still in Progress

Although the most extreme selling wave appears to have cooled, the persistence of negative realized profit/loss suggests that base formation is still unfolding rather than completed.

Capitulation does not end when losses first spike; it ends when selling pressure exhausts and loss realization subsides meaningfully.

For now, the data indicates a market under pressure, with recent participants continuing to exit at a loss, a pattern commonly observed during the later stages of corrective phases, but not yet indicative of confirmed recovery.

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