Why Jonathan Kuminga Has Brought The Warriors To A Standstill

NBA training camps open in less than one month, and the Golden State Warriors still have only nine players signed to standard contracts. While most teams need to fill one or two more roster spots between now and the start of the season, the Warriors have to sign at least five more players.

For now, the Warriors are the only team that has yet to sign a single player this offseason. They have their ongoing restricted-free-agency standoff with Jonathan Kuminga to thank for that.

At the moment, the Warriors are roughly $25.0 million below the $195.9 million first apron and nearly $36.9 million below the $207.8 million second apron. Kuminga is the first domino that needs to fall before they fill out the remainder of the roster.

According to ESPN’s Shams Charania and Anthony Slater, the Warriors have offered Kuminga a two-year, $45 million contract, but he’s shown little interest in accepting it. That’s “due in large part to the Warriors’ insistence on having a team option for the second season and their unwillingness to let him maintain the built-in no-trade clause,” they added.

If Kuminga eventually relents and takes that deal, he’ll have a starting salary of $21.75 million, according to Sam Amick of The Athletic. That would leave the Warriors less than $15.2 million below the second apron with five open roster spots.

That’s where things could get tricky.

Kuminga Could Trigger Hard-Cap Issues

If the Warriors sign Kuminga to that two-year, $45 million deal, they’d go over the first apron after rounding out the rest of their roster. That would limit them to the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception rather than the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE that teams get when they’re below the first apron.

If (when) the Warriors spend the taxpayer MLE—longtime Boston Celtics center Al Horford is their reported target with that exception—they’ll become hard-capped at the second apron. That means they won’t allowed to have more than $207.8 million in salary on their books at any point between now and June 30 under any circumstance.

Let’s reverse-engineer the Warriors’ salary sheet to show why Kuminga’s negotiations take priority before they commit to spending their full taxpayer MLE.

The Warriors currently have $170.5 million in salary on their books. If they spend the taxpayer MLE on Horford and then round out the rest of their roster with five veteran-minimum contracts ($2.3 million each), they’d be up to nearly $187.7 million in total salary. That would leave them less than $20.2 million below the second apron, which they could not cross since they’d be hard-capped after using the taxpayer MLE.

The starting salary of their current offer to Kuminga is more than $21.7 million. See why that’s problematic?

Granted, the Warriors don’t have to fill their entire roster by opening night. A growing number of teams have started to leave one roster spot open to maintain additional flexibility for in-season moves. The veteran-minimum exception also begins to prorate downward once the season begins, so the Warriors could just wait to fill their 15th roster spot until they could squeeze in a final minimum deal while staying under the second apron.

However, if they hard-capped themselves by using the taxpayer MLE before resolving Kuminga’s future, they’d leave themselves at risk of getting poached. The Brooklyn Nets are the only team with cap space at the moment, but they could decide to give Kuminga an offer sheet if the Warriors were limited in how much they could match.

Either way, those looming hard-cap issues might dissuade the Warriors from increasing their offer to Kuminga.

The Nuclear Option Of The Qualifying Offer

If Kuminga refuses to take the Warriors’ two-year, $45 million contract, he does have a nuclear option in his back pocket. He could instead accept his one-year, $7.9 million qualifying offer, which would give him full veto rights on any trade this coming season and make him an unrestricted free agent in 2026. However, he’d be giving up nearly $14 million this year by doing so.

Kuminga has until Oct. 1 to accept his qualifying offer, so this standoff may continue for the next few weeks. Pressure will begin to rise once training camps open in late September, though. Both sides have real incentive to find a compromise, as Kuminga’s next contract will be the Warriors’ lifeline to a future major trade, while Kuminga presumably doesn’t want to punt away $14 million.

If cooler heads don’t prevail and Kuminga does take his qualifying offer, the Warriors would have nearly $178.5 million on their books before filling out the rest of their roster. That still wouldn’t leave them enough space under the first apron to spend the full non-taxpayer MLE, but they’d have more than $12 million in wiggle room under the second apron after spending the taxpayer MLE and signing five players to minimum contracts.

Depending how frisky the Warriors were feeling, they could even use a portion of the non-taxpayer MLE to pay Horford more than the taxpayer MLE or give slight raises to the players whom they’re signing to minimum deals. However, that would hard-cap them at the first apron rather than the second, which would greatly limit their rest-of-season flexibility.

Strictly from a hard-cap perspective, Kuminga taking his qualifying offer would be optimal for the Warriors. They wouldn’t have to time the rest of their signings to ensure they stay far enough below the second apron to make additional moves as needed. However, they’d be a virtual lock to lose Kuminga for nothing as an unrestricted free agent if he does pick up his qualifying offer, which would hardly be ideal.

The Warriors should thus want to avoid the nuclear option of Kuminga picking up his qualifying offer, even if it would simplify their lives from a financial standpoint. It’s worth jumping through a few extra hard-cap hoops if it means Kuminga doesn’t leave them empty-handed next offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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