Cardano ETF Approval Odds Soar to 87% After Grayscale S-1 Filing

TLDR

• Grayscale’s amended S-1 filing has raised Cardano ETF approval odds to 87%.
• The approval odds increased by 11% in just one week, showing significant momentum.
• Grayscale’s regulatory push signals a strong commitment to launching the Cardano ETF.
• The Cardano ETF would be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol GADA.
• SEC has extended the decision timeline for the ADA ETF to October 26, 2025.

Grayscale’s recent filing of an amended S-1 with the SEC has significantly boosted the Cardano ETF approval odds. According to Polymarket data, the probability of approval has surged to 87%, up from 75% just one week ago. This positive shift follows the firm’s push to advance its regulatory efforts for the product.

Cardano ETF Approval Odds Surge to 87%

The Cardano ETF approval odds have increased sharply over the past week. The chances of approval jumped by 11%, reaching a high of 87%. This marks a remarkable recovery after the odds dipped to 75% in late August, down from 89% in July.

Analysts attribute this surge to Grayscale’s decision to submit an amended S-1 form with the SEC. The form, filed on August 29, is part of Grayscale’s ongoing efforts to launch a Cardano ETF. Grayscale’s persistence in pushing forward with regulatory filings signals strong momentum for the approval process.

This rebound is also a result of positive market developments surrounding Cardano. Analysts have noted that Cardano continues to see solid growth, with the cryptocurrency ranking among the top assets by weekly returns. This upward trajectory of Cardano adds confidence to the Cardano ETF approval odds.

Cardano ETF Proposal Moves Forward with SEC Filing

On August 29, Grayscale filed an amended S-1 form with the SEC for its proposed ADA ETF. This filing follows an earlier 19b-4 application, reinforcing the company’s commitment to the launch. If approved, the ETF would track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index, holding ADA directly without using leverage or derivatives.

The ADA ETF would be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GADA. Grayscale has partnered with Coinbase Custody to provide institutional-grade security for the ETF. This aligns with Grayscale’s strategy for its other crypto trusts, signaling a long-term approach to crypto ETFs.

Grayscale’s ongoing efforts to advance the Cardano ETF further demonstrate its dedication to the crypto space. Analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg confirmed that Grayscale has also filed similar paperwork for a Polkadot ETF. The filings for both products highlight Grayscale’s long-term focus on crypto ETFs.

SEC’s Extended Decision Timeline

The SEC has extended its decision on the ADA ETF to October 26, 2025. The ruling was originally expected by August 27, but the agency has postponed its decision. This delay is part of the SEC’s broader regulatory caution, as it handles 96 separate filings for crypto ETFs.

Despite the delay, the SEC’s recent clarification that certain staking activities are not considered securities has given the crypto market a boost. These regulatory changes align with efforts to create a more favorable environment for crypto. The extension does not dampen expectations, as many analysts believe approval is imminent.

Grayscale remains committed to launching the ADA ETF, with October serving as a key month for decision-making. The rise in approval odds and the company’s persistence make it clear that the Cardano ETF could soon become a reality.

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