Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? What the Data Actually Shows

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest recovery has lifted sentiment across crypto markets, with traders pointing to renewed momentum after weeks of choppy price action. 

However, the rebound has also revived something else: fresh allegations against Jane Street, a global quantitative trading firm and major liquidity provider. But how much of the circulating narrative is supported by evidence, and how much remains speculative? As the theory resurfaces, separating verifiable facts from online conjecture has become essential.

Jane Street’s Alleged 10 AM Bitcoin Sell-Off: Manipulation Theory or Market Myth?

Jane Street is dominating Crypto Twitter discussions, and the surge in attention extends beyond social media. Google Trends data shows that search interest for “Jane Street Bitcoin” recently reached an all-time high. This indicates a sharp rise in public curiosity.

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What is driving this renewed focus? A simple search on X reveals numerous posts linking Jane Street to Bitcoin’s price action. At the center of the discussion are allegations of a so-called 10 AM Eastern Time Bitcoin sell-off pattern.

Since 2024, Zero Hedge has repeatedly pointed to what it describes as a recurring pattern. According to him, Bitcoin often experiences a sharp decline around 10 AM ET. Jane Street is frequently named in connection with the theory.

Similar allegations surfaced in December 2025. 

At the time, BeInCrypto reported that no regulator, exchange, or independent data source had confirmed any coordinated activity. Notably, new allegations against Jane Street surfaced recently after Terraform Labs’ administrator sued the trading firm.

Jane Street has denied any wrongdoing and stated that it intends to defend itself in court. Nonetheless, some analysts started making connections between the lawsuit’s timing and Bitcoin’s price.

Several commentators on X have alleged that the legal action against Jane Street may have paused the supposed 10 AM sell-offs. According to this narrative, the absence of the previously observed intraday declines allowed Bitcoin’s price to climb over the past two days.

In a detailed post, Justin Bechler suggested that the alleged “daily flash crashes” had previously stopped after the Terraform Labs lawsuit filings became public early last year. 

However, he claims the 10 AM pattern later resumed in Q3 2025. By December, he said, the intraday declines had returned with full force.

Bechler further noted that Jane Street disclosed a large IBIT position in its Q4 2025 13F filing. It also sharply increased its MicroStrategy holdings. 

According to him, this role gives the firm “direct access to the mechanism that connects ETF share prices to actual Bitcoin.” Bechler stated that Jane Street can transfer Bitcoin in and out of the ETF structure, arbitrage price differences between the fund and the spot market, and hold inventory positions on a scale far beyond that of a typical market participant.

He also added that a 13F only shows long stock positions but does not require disclosure of options, futures, or swaps.

He noted that the public only sees what appears to be an accumulation. In reality, the position could represent a significant short exposure that resembles a long, since the offsetting leg of the trade remains hidden under current disclosure rules.

A Form 13F, he added, is merely a snapshot of one side of the balance sheet. The other side is not visible to anyone outside the firm.

The Counterarguments: Volatility, Not Villainy

Not everyone is convinced. Several analysts pushed back, arguing the 10 AM pattern is overstated. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, directly questioned the narrative. 

He noted that the mechanics described, buying Bitcoin on the spot market and selling futures, are not unusual. According to Moreno, this is “what any other delta neutral fund does.”

Moreno also pointed to the lack of a broader market context in the discussion. He stressed that overall Bitcoin spot demand growth has been collapsing since early October 2025, a trend he described as an obvious driver of the price decline.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, also weighed in. He argued that Bitcoin has historically rallied into early March during every midterm year. He added that each market cycle tends to produce its own narrative to explain price movements.

Furthermore, Jeff Park, chief investment officer at ProCap and an adviser to Bitwise, suggested that the debate reflects a misunderstanding of how ETF plumbing actually works.

He mentioned that the focus on individual firms, such as Jane Street, overlooks the structural mechanics governing all Authorized Participants (APs) within the Bitcoin ETF framework.

Users on X also began pointing out that Jane Street appeared to have deleted every post from its account following the lawsuit. This further fueled speculation online.

However, that claim was quickly debunked. Economist Alex Krüger clarified that Jane Street had no posts on its X account to begin with.

Why the 10 AM Jane Street sell-off Theory Resonates

Retail traders have watched Bitcoin shrug off bullish developments, including MicroStrategy purchases and a favorable regulatory environment, while price action remained weak and sentiment slid into extreme fear. In that context, a simple and identifiable explanation can be compelling.

The apparent pause in the alleged 10 AM pattern following a high-profile lawsuit fits neatly into a correlation-as-causation narrative that often gains traction on Crypto Twitter.

However, correlation does not constitute proof. For now, the 10 AM theory remains merely an allegation, not a fact.