Circle’s breakout year sets up 129% upside to $190 per share, Bernstein says

Circle is now a fintech infrastructure provider rather than a crypto proxy play.

That is Bernstein’s blunt assessment shared with DL News after the USDC stablecoin issuer posted its fourth-quarter earnings that saw its revenue skyrocket by 77% to $770 million in 2025.

To Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, this is only just the beginning as artificial intelligence and blockchain technology influence the world economy.

“We are in the earliest stages of a very deep and very fundamental transformation of the way the global economic system functions and works,” he said during the earnings call.

“Not only will our global economic system become more internet native, but it’s also going to become dramatically more automated.”

To Bernstein, Circle will play a key role in that shift. The research and brokerage firm reiterated its “outperform” rating and $190 price target, implying 129% upside, arguing that Circle is evolving into core internet infrastructure.

Analyst Gautum Chhugani and his three Bernstein colleagues described Circle’s fourth-quarter as a “clear divergence from crypto” amid the market downturn that has wiped out over $2 trillion.

They value Circle using a long-term discounted cash flow approach, citing “stablecoin’s potential applications in payments and stablecoin-native financial services.”

Bernstein’s bullish call comes as stablecoins in circulation surged 50% in 2025 and sits at just under $310 billion, DefiLlama data shows.

After a 72% year-on-year jump, Circle’s dollar pegged token USDC makes up $75 billion, or 28%, of the total stablecoins in circulation.

Arc ahead

Bernstein sees Circle’s future not just in USDC supply growth, but in the expansion of its Arc blockchain and payments stack — infrastructure that could reposition the company from interest-income beneficiary to full-stack digital dollar platform.

Arc, Circle’s layer-1 blockchain, launched its testnet in October with participation from more than 100 partners and remains on track for a 2026 mainnet launch.

Bernstein notes that Arc has maintained near-100% uptime, 0.5-second finality and has processed 166 million transactions since launch.

To be sure, Circle does face some challenges.

Bernstein flags that 99% of revenue remains tied to interest income, making Circle sensitive to declining rates.

Competition from banks and payments giants could also intensify as regulatory clarity improves, the company said.

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at lance@dlnews.com.