For CEOs this 2026: Caution or courage?

There is a thin line between courage and recklessness, and it is often the chief executive officer’s (CEO) job to determine where that line is. In a globalized business environment constantly being disrupted by new technology, that job becomes more difficult each year.

Take artificial intelligence (AI). Initiatives that only last year were deemed visionary and future-proof are now being put into question, as many chief executives all over the world are starting to slow down and reassess their bets on AI.

While last year’s PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) data showed 56% of leaders attributing efficiency gains to AI — with roughly a third reporting growth in profitability and revenue — this year, only 12% say AI has delivered both cost and revenue benefits.

The latest edition of the PwC Global CEO Survey interviewed 4,454 CEOs in 95 countries and territories from Sept. 30 to Nov. 10, 2025. The report found that only three-in-ten executives feel confident about revenue growth in 2026 as most struggle to turn AI investment into tangible returns, the lowest outlook in five years. The AI hype of previous years has matured into a polarized landscape: a small group of frontrunners is seeing tangible financial returns, while the majority are struggling to scale technology amid rising geopolitical friction.

Moreover, countries all across the world are reconsidering entire energy systems, transportation corridors, industrial zones, and data center investments, essentially “redrawing the global map of infrastructure and influence.” More than half of CEOs expect to make international investments in the year ahead, with notable momentum toward India and the Middle East.

“Volatility is the baseline rather than the exception,” PwC Global Chairman Mohamed Kande wrote for the World Economic Forum.

“For leaders, the question is not simply where to allocate capital. The deeper consideration is how this global rebuilding will reshape competitiveness and opportunity in the decade ahead. Countries and companies that rethink their operations, risk management and business models will be the ones that pull ahead.”

The polarizing impact of AI

Regarding AI, success appears to vary by firm. According to the EY CEO Outlook 2026, which surveyed 1,200 executives, the CEO Confidence Index declined from 83 to 78.5, reflecting growing unease about the pressures shaping today’s business landscape. However, the vast majority of CEOs in the survey report that their AI initiatives have met or exceeded expectations, with only a small minority (3%) falling short of targets.

The EY report concludes that AI is becoming an increasingly reliable driver of productivity, revenue growth, customer experience and operating model efficiency, with the biggest value gains being won by the 20% of organizations whose AI investments are already delivering significantly above-expectation returns.

“CEOs will need to treat AI as a multi-year strategic pillar — embedded in workforce planning, capital allocation, and operating model design. With many early benefits in sight, focus is likely to shift from proliferating pilots to scaling what works, prioritizing depth over breadth by embedding AI across critical value chains to capture enterprise-wide productivity,” the report said.

This suggests intensifying competition across all industries, as laggards risk falling further behind while AI adopters push for accelerated investment cycles and bolder transformation agendas, using the technology not only to optimize current operations but also to reshape products, services, and business models.

In contrast, the 2026 PwC survey found that only 33% of CEOs interviewed reported gains in either cost or revenue due to AI, while 56% say they have seen no significant financial benefit to date.

This data presents a paradox of perception, suggesting that while AI is fulfilling its role as a productivity tool supercharging organizational efficiency, it has yet to become the revenue engine many hoped for.

PwC points to a growing divide between companies piloting AI and those deploying it at scale, with CEOs reporting both cost and revenue gains two to three times more likely to say they have embedded AI extensively across products and services, demand generation, and strategic decision-making.

“Organizations that move from pilots to enterprise-level integration will capture disproportionate value,” Mr. Kande noted.

According to Teneo Vision 2026 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey, which includes the views of more than 350 global public company CEOs and 400 institutional investors representing approximately US$19 trillion of company and portfolio value, for the majority of CEOs, the gains from AI initiatives will take much longer to actualize. As much as 84% believe that positive returns will take longer than six months to achieve.

However, 53% of investors surveyed expect returns within six months, exerting pressure on executives to deliver on their promised gains.

An area where AI is already seeing an impact on is the job market, where most CEOs expect it to drive a near-term increase in hiring across all levels in 2026. Teneo’s survey found that businesses are reshaping their workforces to accelerate returns on investment from an efficiency, cost and commercial perspective, with AI enablement and upskilling billed as top talent priorities.

87% of CEOs included in Teneo’s survey feel confident that their organizations are prepared for future technological disruption, but are uncertain about how future leaders will be able to keep pace with tech advancements. Agility and creativity, they believe, will be the most important traits for a new generation of CEOs.

The risks of overcaution

The global CEO sentiment has shifted from experimentation to disciplined reinvention. Conglomerates are at a disadvantage in this landscape, as change at the scale they are operating on is slow, expensive, and fraught with regulatory friction.

Earlier this year, xAI’s Grok was banned in the Philippines alongside several others in the ASEAN because its online safety measures did not meet local standards. All over the world, especially in the European Union and China, governments are tightening regulations over the new technology, putting early adopters in the crosshairs of regulators. This can put many corporate initiatives regarding AI implementation on hold.

Yet, the window of opportunity regarding AI is undoubtedly shrinking. External and cyber risks can compound as tariffs, regulatory oversight, and AI-powered cybercrime reduce the margin of error for businesses worldwide. If an organization is not using AI-powered cybersecurity today, they expose themselves to more powerful, more sophisticated cyber risks.

According to the EY report, geopolitical dynamics are creating challenges that require adjustments in how the business operates.

“Perhaps most significantly, as data becomes both a strategic asset and a point of geopolitical friction, new regulations and restrictions affect how companies collect, transfer and utilize information,” the report found.

A nearby example is how countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam have recently passed laws or guidelines emphasizing AI sovereignty, or the ability of a nation or organization to exert full control over its own AI stack, including the data, the data centers, and the models themselves. Additionally, EY also pointed out that firms wary of sharing sensitive intellectual property across borders are creating an increasingly splintered digital ecosystem that raises operational costs and slows innovation diffusion even within companies.

Mr. Kande sums up the dilemma facing executives who are still holding out on AI today.

“In periods of rapid change, the instinct to slow down is understandable — but it’s also risky,” he said. “The value at stake across the global economy is increasing, and the window to capture it is narrowing. The companies that succeed will be those willing to make bold decisions and invest with conviction in the capabilities that matter most.” — Bjorn Biel M. Beltran