Can XPL bulls absorb the $10.79 mln token unlock? Assessing…

Plasma [XPL] extended its rebound with an 18% daily advance, as traders repriced their risk while the token still traded 94% below its $1.68 all-time high. 

Notably, XPL has fluctuated between $0.0873 and $0.1142 within 24 hours, reflecting expanding volatility across sessions. 

Despite the recovery attempt, the asset remains structurally discounted relative to its prior cycle valuation. 

However, XPL has rebounded 37.18% from its $0.07186 all-time low printed twenty days ago, showing that buyers have defended recent downside extremes. 

This positioning places the token in a transitional phase, where recovery strength must compete against overhead historical supply.

Fresh supply enters as 88.89M tokens unlock

An additional 88.89 million XPL tokens have now entered circulation, representing roughly 4.33% of the existing supply and carrying an estimated value near $10.79 million. 

This release expands available liquidity in a market that has already shown reactive volatility. 

While the unlock follows a predefined vesting structure, traders now need to evaluate whether secondary market demand can absorb this incremental float. 

However, absorption capacity depends on active participation rather than passive holding. 

If buyers continue stepping in near recent lows, the supply increase may rotate into stronger hands instead of amplifying distribution pressure.

Why are Binance traders leaning heavily long?

Derivatives positioning showed a clear directional tilt, with 73.23% of Binance top trader positions allocated to longs while only 26.77% remained short. 

The Long/Short Ratio has climbed to 2.74, signaling aggressive upside exposure rather than balanced hedging. 

Such skewed positioning reflects conviction among high-volume accounts, yet it also increases crowding risk. 

However, this imbalance can fuel continuation if price sustains upward traction. When traders cluster on one side, volatility typically expands as liquidity hunts weaker leverage. 

Therefore, the present structure reveals confidence, but it also embeds vulnerability if price reverses sharply.

Exchange outflows persist amid volatility

Spot flow data indicated a recent net outflow of approximately $822,130, signaling that tokens have continued leaving exchanges despite heightened price swings. 

Earlier inflow spikes had briefly increased exchange balances, yet current data shows stabilization rather than renewed deposit pressure. 

This dynamic suggests that holders have not rushed to liquidate aggressively at current levels. However, sustained outflows must continue if bulls aim to counterbalance fresh circulating supply. 

Reduced exchange inventory often tightens available liquidity, which can amplify price response during directional moves. Therefore, the flow behavior currently leans supportive rather than distributive.

Long liquidations outweigh shorts

Liquidation data revealed $93.32K in long liquidations at press time, compared to $34.2K in short liquidations across major venues. 

Binance has contributed $41.48K in long wipes versus $8.12K in shorts, while OKX has recorded $37.13K in long closures against $22.37K in short removals. 

This imbalance shows that leveraged bulls have absorbed more forced losses during intraday volatility. However, liquidation spikes often reset overheated positioning rather than invalidate broader direction. 

If the price stabilizes above recent lows, the flush may clear weak leverage and support controlled continuation. Still, repeated long-side liquidations would signal structural fragility.

Can XPL absorb supply pressure?

XPL currently shows active participation, exchange outflows, and strong long bias despite new supply entering circulation. 

If buyers maintain depth and prevent exchange balances from expanding, the market can digest the unlock without severe disruption. 

However, sustained upside requires disciplined leverage rather than overcrowded exposure. The structure presently favors controlled continuation, provided positioning remains balanced.

Final Summary

• XPL now trades at a structural crossroads where conviction must overcome expanding circulating supply pressure.
• Sustained upside would require disciplined leverage and steady exchange outflows to support continuation strength.