$1 Billion Bitcoin Operation at Risk if Iran’s Grid Goes Dark

• Geopolitical risk hits oil prices, but Bitcoin markets aren’t pricing Iran’s mining risk yet.
• Iran accounts for an estimated 2–5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate.
• A major grid disruption could temporarily slow blocks and spike fees.

As geopolitical tensions simmer, oil traders are adjusting positions. Defense analysts are gaming out escalation scenarios. But in crypto markets, a quieter question is emerging: what happens to Bitcoin if Iran’s power grid goes dark?

Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera argued that few in crypto are discussing what he described as a “$1 billion Bitcoin operation that gets wiped out if the bombs fall.”

Iran legalized cryptocurrency mining in 2019, offering a pathway to convert domestic energy into globally transferable digital assets amid tightening sanctions. Estimates from various industry trackers have placed Iran’s share of global Bitcoin hashrate between 2% and 5%.

Perera claims Iran mines Bitcoin at roughly $1,320 per coin using subsidized electricity and sells into a market near $68,000,  calling it “a 50x gross margin… Fifty times on power costs alone.” While exact figures are difficult to independently confirm, Iran’s low energy costs have long been cited as a competitive advantage for miners operating there.

Mining and the Grid

Bitcoin mining depends on uninterrupted power. Iran’s electricity grid has faced repeated strain in recent years, with officials at times blaming heavy mining activity for contributing to blackouts during peak demand.

In the event of military strikes targeting critical infrastructure, radar, communications nodes, or energy facilities, the grid itself could suffer collateral damage. Mining farms would not need to be directly targeted. Extended power disruptions would shut them down automatically.

Mining rigs cannot tolerate prolonged outages. If electricity generation were reduced materially for even several days, Iran’s estimated 2% to 5% contribution to global hashrate could disappear almost immediately.

Not Yet Reflected in Pricing

“The market is pricing Iran’s risk into oil,” Perera wrote. “Nobody is pricing it into Bitcoin.”

Whether that assessment proves accurate will depend on events that remain hypothetical. Still, the debate underscores a growing intersection between geopolitics and digital assets.

In a system where electricity can be converted directly into borderless currency, the stability of the power grid is no longer just an engineering concern. It is part of the financial equation.

Here’s What Grok Says

When asked whether Bitcoin would rise or fall if Iran were hit, Grok said the price might fall in the short term.

Geopolitical tensions usually trigger risk-off sentiment. In past Middle East conflicts, Bitcoin dropped first as investors moved away from risky assets. A sudden 2–5% drop in global hashrate could briefly slow transactions and push fees higher, but the network would adjust within about two weeks, limiting long-term damage.

Over time, if Iranian miners stop selling Bitcoin for dollars, that could slightly reduce selling pressure and support prices. But in the early stages, fear would likely dominate. Grok added that markets do not appear to be pricing this scenario in yet.

Related: Wikipedia Founder: Bitcoin Won’t Go to Zero, But It’s a ‘Complete Failure’ as Money