Why Strategy’s S&P 500 Entry Could Trigger Massive Bitcoin Rally

TLDR

• Strategy (MSTR) could join the S&P 500 Index as early as September 5, 2025
• Company holds 597,325-632,457 Bitcoin worth approximately $65-69 billion on its balance sheet
• MSTR stock has gained 173% over the past 12 months with a $96 billion market cap
• Second quarter results showed $10 billion in net income and $32.60 earnings per share
• S&P 500 inclusion would force index funds to buy MSTR shares, potentially boosting both the stock and Bitcoin prices

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, appears positioned to join the S&P 500 Index as early as September 5, 2025. The company has transformed from a software firm into the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

The Bitcoin treasury company now meets all requirements for S&P 500 inclusion after delivering strong quarterly results. Strategy reported $10 billion in net income and $32.60 earnings per share for the second quarter of 2025.

Strategy currently holds between 597,325 and 632,457 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, valued at approximately $65-69 billion at current prices. The company’s total acquisition cost for its Bitcoin holdings stands above $46.5 billion.

Wall Street analyst Josh Man stated on social media that Strategy is already part of the S&P 500 Index. He added that only an official announcement remains pending.

The company’s stock has performed well over the past year, gaining 173% in 12 months. Strategy now commands a market capitalization of $96 billion, making it eligible for the benchmark index.

S&P 500 inclusion requires companies to be US-based with at least 12 months of trading history. Companies must also maintain a market cap exceeding $22.7 billion and have at least 50% of shares publicly held.

Accounting Changes Boost Financial Performance

Strategy adopted new fair-value accounting standards in January 2025, allowing the company to recognize unrealized gains on Bitcoin holdings. This change helped boost profitability as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,128 on August 14.

The company reported $14 billion in operating income and $114.5 million in total revenue during the second quarter. Subscription services grew nearly 70% year-over-year, though the software division remains secondary to Bitcoin operations.

Strategy reported a Bitcoin yield of 19.7% year-to-date during its earnings report. This metric tracks the increase in Bitcoin holdings relative to the company’s share count.

Despite strong financial results, MSTR stock has declined more than 15% over the past month. The stock currently trades at $334.75 in after-hours trading on August 29.

Index Inclusion Would Force Institutional Buying

S&P 500 inclusion would require passive funds to purchase MSTR shares to maintain proper index weighting. Exchange-traded funds and mutual funds tracking the index must buy shares of new additions at the effective date.

This forced buying typically creates upward pressure on stock prices during inclusion periods. Historical data shows companies added to major indices experience average price increases of 3-5% in the short term.

Strategy would become the first Bitcoin treasury company in the S&P 500 if added. The move would provide index funds with indirect exposure to cryptocurrency markets through a publicly traded equity.

Fourteen Wall Street analysts cover MSTR with a consensus Strong Buy rating. The breakdown includes 12 Buy recommendations, one Hold, and one Sell rating.

The average analyst price target sits at $552.29 per share, implying 65% upside potential from current levels. Recent trading highs reached around $150 per share in late August.

Options and futures trading activity could increase around any announcement window. Traders often position ahead of index inclusion events, with volume typically spiking during actual inclusion periods.

S&P Dow Jones manages the quarterly rebalancing process for the index based on market weighting and performance metrics.

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