Why Iran should not count on Russia and China

As U.S. and Israeli strikes entered their third day, Iran’s close allies — Russia and China — have so far responded with only muted criticism, and that exposes the hard limits of its “strategic partnerships” with Moscow and Beijing.

Officials from Russia and China have condemned the U.S.-led strikes but stopped short of pledging military or civilian support to Tehran.

In a phone call with his Russian counterpart on Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said condemned the attacks, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He said it was “unacceptable for the U.S. and Israel to launch attacks against Iran … still less to blatantly assassinate a leader of a sovereign country and instigate regime change.”

The foreign ministry of Russia, which is bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine, issued a statement saying that the “acts of aggression” violated international law and the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, and were “destabilising the situation across the entire region.”

The pair reiterated their leaders’ call for an immediate ceasefire and return to diplomatic dialogue to resolve conflicts. On Sunday, Trump warned that the U.S. combat operation in Iran would continue until all objectives are achieved, potentially stretching into the next four weeks.

Gabriel Wildau, managing director specializing in China at advisory firm Teneo, said that China’s official statement was “strongly condemnatory, but beyond this rhetoric I don’t see China’s government taking concrete action to support Tehran.”

“Preserving détente with the U.S. remains a strategic priority for China’s leadership,” Wildau said, adding he expected a top-level meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to take place later this month as planned.

Trump and Xi discussed a swath of issues, including Iran, during their last phone call on Feb. 4. They’re expected to meet during Trump’s visit to China.

“Beijing may seek concessions on issues more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in exchange for its significantly watered-down messaging on Iran,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a fellow at Chatham House, a London-based policy think tank.

Niutanqin, a social media account with links to Chinese state media widely seen as a mouthpiece for Beijing, wrote Monday that “Iran has no real ally,” adding that even closer nations will prioritize their own national interests over lifting Tehran out of the crisis.

China’s restrained stance in backing Iran militarily is not new.

Last year, Beijing criticized the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran but did not provide material support to Tehran, according to Chatham House, a British think tank.

China also supported UN-led economic sanctions against Tehran before the 2015 nuclear deal and has since moved slowly on channeling investment into the Iranian economy, according to the London-based policy institute.

In the aftermath of the U.S. seizure of Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, on Jan. 3, Beijing condemned the “blatant use of force” and urged Washington to “stop violating other countries’ sovereignty.” But it did little beyond offering these words of condemnation.

China’s reactions to U.S. intervention in Venezuela and Iran show that “a strategic partnership with Beijing falls far short of a military alliance — or even a guarantee of military support” in the face of “an existential threat from U.S. aggression,” said Wildau.

Tehran has been a key strategic, military, economic and trade partner for Moscow in the Middle East in recent years. Iran has become a vital supplier of military drones and missiles to Russia since its fullscale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

Russia will fear the loss of another foothold in the Middle East, as Iran’s regime collapsing would follow the loss of another regional ally, Syria, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Dec. 2024.

Despite the Russian foreign ministry’s condemnation of the attacks on Iran, neither the Kremlin nor President Vladimir Putin has spoken publicly on the situation. CNBC has requested a comment from the Kremlin.

Years of grinding war in Ukraine have hollowed out Russia’s capacity to project power beyond its borders, Matt Gerken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told CNBC. With its military overstretched and its economy under sustained pressure from Western sanctions, Moscow’s influence in the Middle East is set to diminish further, he added.

Russia will have a keen eye on oil prices as sales of its crude to China and India help fund its war machine. Oil prices rose more than 8% Sunday evening, as market participants feared the conflict in Iran could spell a major global supply disruption.

Several countries in the OPEC+ group, including Russia, announced on Sunday that they would increase production by 206,000 barrels a day from April, as they look to counter the potential shortfall. A higher oil price helps Russia, nonetheless.

“Putin’s got to be thrilled, because anything that raises the price of oil is good for him,” Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, told CNBC on Monday. “He’s definitely able to say: if you can’t get oil from the Gulf, hey, we’ve got a great supply.”

Talks between Ukraine and Russia aimed at ending the four-year war have appeared to make little progress in recent weeks.

“He’s [Putin] definitely happy with the situation, I’d say, although once it’s resolved, Trump is definitely going to turn his eyes toward Putin next,” Wald added.

Russia often takes a “wait-and-see” approach to global affairs that don’t directly impact its interests. When protests erupted in Iran in late December, Russia did not lend a helping hand. Now, Russia could well stand back and watch whether the regime can withstand the military attacks by the U.S. and Israel.

Michael McFaul, Stanford professor and former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said there was no guarantee that U.S. and Israeli air strikes alone would be enough to lead to regime change.

“Historically, air campaigns do not lead to the overthrow of regimes. I can’t think of a single case of success, even military interventions with boots on the ground [tend to fail],” he told CNBC.

“We are bombing right now military targets that are weapon systems that are aimed at us and our partners and allies, we’re not taking out the military instruments and the weapons that are used to repress the Iranian people.”

“So far, it’s very unclear how this military campaign right now will lead to the regime change that President Trump has promised the Iranian people,” he added.

— CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this story.