Is Costco (COST) Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings Thursday?

TLDR

• Costco reports Q2 fiscal 2026 results on March 5, 2026
• COST stock is up 13.6% year-to-date after falling ~6% in 2025
• Analysts expect EPS of $4.55, up from $4.02 a year ago, and revenue of $69.25 billion
• Wall Street consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $1,081.57
• COST trades at a forward P/E of 49.6, well above the sector average of 18.9

Costco is heading into its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on March 5 with real momentum behind it.

After dropping around 6% in 2025, COST stock has bounced back hard — up 13.6% so far in 2026. That’s the kind of recovery that gets Wall Street paying attention.

Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST

Analysts are forecasting earnings of $4.55 per share for Q2, compared to $4.02 in the same period last year. Revenue is expected to hit $69.25 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year.

The sales data leading into earnings has been encouraging. January net sales came in at around $21 billion, up 9.3% from a year earlier.

In the first 22 weeks of the fiscal year, sales rose 8.5% year-over-year. Comparable sales growth has been steady across regions.

E-commerce has been a bright spot. Digital sales have grown in the double digits, though any slowdown there could disappoint investors.

Membership growth is another factor to watch. Rising memberships — partly driven by inflation pushing more shoppers toward value — have been a steady tailwind. Kirkland Signature, Costco’s in-house brand, continues to drive loyalty and help the company hold onto market share.

Analyst Views

Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone kept his Buy rating on COST ahead of earnings and set a price target of $1,185. He points to Costco’s appeal across income brackets — strong with higher-income consumers, while its pricing structure also draws value-focused shoppers.

Citi’s Steven Zaccone held a more cautious stance, maintaining a Hold rating but raising his price target slightly from $990 to $1,000.

The Valuation Question

Costco’s 10-year total return of 662% has more than doubled the S&P 500. Its revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 9.3% over the past five years, with no down years in that stretch.

That track record comes at a price. COST currently trades at a forward P/E of 49.6, compared to a sector average of 18.9. At the trailing P/E, the stock sits at 53.6 — about 15% above Nvidia’s multiple.

For some investors, that premium feels stretched. Any miss on comparable sales or a slower membership growth number could hit the stock hard.

Q1 2026 net sales came in at $66 billion. The company’s scale — buying large quantities of a focused product range — gives it bargaining power with suppliers and keeps prices low for shoppers.

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