Prediction markets post first monthly volume decrease since August 2025

Prediction markets ended February with their first month-on-month volume decrease since August 2025. The leading platforms saw an outflow of users after the end of the Super Bowl, and are now moving back to current events. 

Prediction market performance in February ended with the first net monthly drawdown since August 2025. Prediction markets are, for now, still at the peak of their new trend, with new pair additions and increased activity in short-term markets.

The decrease in volumes tracked the end of Super Bowl sports predictions and affected all markets. Based on Artemis data, Kalshi had a small monthly gain, Polymarket was flat, but the largest outflows were from the Opinion Labs market. 

The shift in activity made Kalshi a leader, while still leaving most active wallet users to choose Polymarket. 

The latest monthly downturn follows a shrinking share for Opinion Labs, from a peak of over 30% to around 3% of prediction volumes. Opinion Labs was the response of BNB Chain, aiming to compete with the leaders, but the platform raised questions about whether its traffic was organic. 

Prediction markets boost Kalshi to $9.8B

Kalshi achieved a total of $9.8B in February, up from January’s record of $8.9B. Kalshi has not even seen one month of drawdowns and has extended its exponential growth stage. 

The market saw a small outflow of weekly transactions, though volumes remained significant. Open interest is close to its peak range at $474M. Sports remains the most active category for Kalshi, followed by crypto price predictions. 

As popularity grew, Kalshi had to investigate more cases of insider trading. Kalshi was also facing user discontent with its market resolution terms and conditions. 

At this stage, Kalshi also showed that its regulated status was key to establishing a leading position. 

Polymarket still leads in transactions, active users

Polymarket remained the leader with the biggest share of transactions. The platform still hosted multiple small bets from retail users. 

Prediction markets took over some of the volume of direct crypto trading, replacing it with 15-minute and 5-minute markets. 

Open interest on Polymarket remains lower, recently breaking above $400M. The platform is still ahead of Opinion Labs, with $91M in open interest. 

Overall, prediction markets still carry over $1B in open interest, approaching the November 2024 record. With innovative prediction markets and Polymarket’s eventual expansion, open interest may break new records. 

Going viral was also key to increased liquidity and trading volumes. Social media was key for viral trading pairs. In the coming month, prediction markets will face increased contentious bets on the situation in the Middle East and the future of the Iranian regime, boosting the influence and usage of major platforms.