XRP Slides to $1.36 Amid Iran Tensions — Could a 35% Crash Be Coming?

TLDR

• Ripple’s XRP declined 1.90% to $1.36 amid geopolitical tensions with Iran triggering widespread risk aversion in crypto and stock markets
• Spot XRP ETFs in the United States posted their strongest daily inflow in approximately 30 days, totaling $6.97 million
• Approximately 38.8% of alternative cryptocurrencies are currently hovering near historical lows, surpassing post-FTX crisis levels
• Technical analysis reveals a bear pennant formation suggesting potential downside of 35% toward the $0.86 price level
• Hidden Road’s activation on the NSCC directory as of March 2 bolsters Ripple’s traditional finance integration efforts

Ripple’s native cryptocurrency experienced a 1.90% decline on March 3, settling near $1.36 as escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran sparked a widespread retreat from risk assets.

Energy markets responded dramatically to the crisis. West Texas Intermediate crude spiked 6.3% to reach $71.23 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 7% to $77.74. Natural gas prices in Europe experienced explosive gains of 40–50% following reports of interrupted tanker traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production, and operational constraints at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refining facility.

Escalating energy costs typically fuel inflation concerns. This dynamic can drive government bond yields higher and diminish expectations for monetary easing — market conditions that generally create headwinds for speculative assets such as XRP.

Federal Reserve officials John C. Williams and Neel Kashkari had speaking engagements scheduled for March 3. Market participants paid close attention to their remarks regarding energy-induced inflation for indications about future monetary policy direction.

Counter to the price weakness, regulated XRP exchange-traded funds in the United States attracted their most substantial single-day capital injection in roughly 30 days. According to SoSoValue tracking, net inflows reached $6.97 million, pushing cumulative net assets to approximately $1.02 billion. Certain market participants evidently viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity through institutional investment vehicles.

Altcoin Market Under Pressure

XRP’s struggles reflect broader weakness across alternative cryptocurrencies. Analytics from CryptoQuant indicate that roughly 38.8% of altcoins currently trade near their all-time lowest prices. This metric actually exceeds the approximately 37.8% recorded immediately following the FTX exchange implosion in late 2022.

When such a significant portion of altcoins languish at depressed levels, investment capital frequently migrates toward Bitcoin or assets perceived as relatively safer. This market environment can restrict XRP’s recovery potential, even when purchasing activity emerges.

From a charting perspective, XRP has entered a consolidation phase after declining from approximately $2.40 earlier this year. The token continues trading beneath its 50-day simple moving average positioned near $1.62. The relative strength index hovers around 40, indicating subdued momentum without reaching oversold territory.

Critical support exists between $1.30 and $1.32, with a more substantial buying zone located near $1.20. Overhead resistance appears at $1.45, followed by the 50-day SMA at $1.62. A bear pennant formation visible on daily timeframes suggests that a decisive break below current support could trigger a measured decline toward approximately $0.86.

Ripple’s Institutional Push

Regarding institutional developments, Hidden Road formally commenced operations on the NSCC directory as of March 2, 2026, according to official DTCC documentation. The National Securities Clearing Corporation facilitates post-execution clearing and settlement services for United States equity markets.

Hidden Road’s directory inclusion enhances Ripple Prime’s capacity to bridge conventional financial infrastructure with distributed ledger technology.

While this development doesn’t immediately generate XRP purchasing pressure, market observers frequently interpret institutional infrastructure expansion as a constructive indicator for XRP Ledger adoption over extended timeframes.

JPMorgan analysts also observed that comprehensive United States cryptocurrency market structure legislation could achieve passage by mid-year, a development the financial institution characterizes as potentially beneficial for digital asset markets generally.

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