CrowdStrike (CRWD) Stock: What to Watch When Earnings Drop Today

TLDR

• CrowdStrike reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings after market close today, March 3
• Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $1.10 and revenue of ~$1.3 billion, up 23% year-over-year
• CRWD stock is down ~18% year-to-date, largely due to fears that AI will disrupt cybersecurity subscription models
• Subscription ARR hit $4.92 billion, up 23% YoY, accounting for ~95% of revenue
• Wells Fargo initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $450 price target; analyst consensus sits at Moderate Buy with an average target of $510.30

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) reports its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results after the bell today, March 3.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., CRWD

The Street is watching closely after a rough start to the year for the stock.

Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $1.10, up from $1.03 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast to come in at around $1.3 billion, a rise of roughly 23% year-over-year.

CRWD has dropped about 18% year-to-date. The selloff has been driven largely by fears that AI tools could undercut demand for traditional cybersecurity software subscriptions.

Those fears got louder on February 20, when the stock fell 8% after Anthropic released a tool that scans code for potential vulnerabilities.

The stock has also seen eight sessions this year with drops exceeding 3%, including back-to-back declines just over a week ago.

Subscription ARR in Focus

The key metric investors are watching is Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue. It measures the value of Falcon platform subscriptions, which make up about 95% of total revenue.

Subscription ARR hit $4.92 billion last quarter, up 23% year-over-year, with record net new ARR.

That growth was driven by customer retention, upsells through Falcon Flex, and broader demand. Investors will be looking for continued momentum in the second half of fiscal 2026.

Falcon Flex is worth watching. It replaces the old module-by-module buying process with upfront dollar-pool commitments, making it easier for customers to expand their use of CrowdStrike products.

Wells Fargo noted those pools are being used up faster than expected, triggering expansion renewals in as little as five months. Flex currently reaches only 1–3% of the installed base, leaving a long runway.

What Analysts Are Saying

Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Monday with an Overweight rating and a $450 price target. Analyst Richard Poland said the firm is comfortable with the valuation despite the current premium, calling CrowdStrike a top share gainer in cybersecurity.

Piper Sandler also upgraded the stock to Overweight, keeping its price target at $520, even with the year-to-date decline.

DA Davidson trimmed its target from $580 to $425 but kept a Buy rating. The firm expects net new ARR of between $315 million and $320 million for Q4, above consensus.

On TipRanks, CRWD holds a Moderate Buy consensus from 20 Buy ratings and 7 Hold ratings. The average price target of $510.30 implies about 32.6% upside from current levels.

CrowdStrike recently launched FalconID, a multi-factor authentication product aimed at phishing and credential abuse. It also announced a partnership with VAST Data to integrate security capabilities across AI systems.

The company is hosting its third annual Fal.Con Gov conference on March 18 in Washington, D.C.

CRWD was trading at $384.86 with a market cap of approximately $97 billion heading into today’s report.

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