CoreWeave (CRWV) Stock Falls 28% After Q4 Earnings Miss – Is it a Buy?

TLDR

• CoreWeave stock has dropped around 28% since reporting Q4 results on February 26
• Q1 revenue guidance of $1.9B–$2B missed consensus of $2.29B
• FY26 revenue guidance of $12B–$13B was slightly ahead of the $12B estimate
• Backlog jumped from $55.6B to $66.8B, up 342% year-over-year
• Citi cut its price target to $126 from $135 and slashed its FY26 EPS estimate to ($2.97) from $0.75

CoreWeave reported Q4 earnings after the bell on February 26, and the market’s reaction was swift and brutal.

CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV

The stock dropped as much as 21% on Friday following the print, and the selling continued into the following week. By Tuesday, March 3, CRWV was down another 7% in early trading, bringing the total decline to around 28% since the report.

Q4 revenue came in at $1.57B, up 110% year-over-year, which beat estimates. But that wasn’t enough to offset the bad news.

Management guided Q1 revenue to $1.9B–$2B. That missed Wall Street’s consensus of $2.29B by a wide margin, and it’s the number that rattled investors most.

For the full year, CoreWeave guided FY26 revenue to $12B–$13B, slightly above the average estimate of $12B. The backlog also grew from $55.6B to $66.8B — a 342% jump year-over-year.

Losses and CapEx Weigh on Sentiment

Net losses for Q4 hit $284M, up sharply from $36M in the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.89, well below the consensus loss of $0.21.

Interest expenses for Q4 surged to $388M, compared to $149M a year ago. That’s a meaningful drag on any path to profitability.

CapEx guidance for FY26 was raised to $30B–$35B, more than double the $14.9B spent in FY25.

CEO Michel Intrator addressed the CapEx jump on the earnings call. He said the capital deployment is tied directly to contracted demand, pointing to the $66.8B backlog as cover.

He also noted that every contract for new capacity is expected to begin generating revenue by the end of 2026.

About 70% of that backlog is estimated to involve financially stable, low-risk customers. CoreWeave’s two largest customers are Meta and Microsoft, both of which have guided for major CapEx increases this year.

OpenAI, another key customer, completed a $110B funding round last week, which eased some concerns about circular financing.

CoreWeave ended FY25 with 850 MW of active power capacity. Contracted power stood at 3.1 GW. The target is 1.7 GW of active power online by end of 2026, and 5 GW in contracted footprint by 2030.

What Analysts Are Saying

Citi Research moved quickly after the results, cutting estimates across the board.

Analyst Tyler Radke lowered the FY26 EPS estimate to ($2.97) from $0.75, and cut the FY27 EPS estimate to ($1.74) from $3.11.

Citi also trimmed its price target on CRWV to $126 from $135.

The firm said it brought Q1 revenue and operating income in line with guidance, given the Q4 miss and the Q1 guide landing close to consensus with two-thirds of the quarter already done.

Before the earnings drop, CRWV was trading at a forward EV/Sales multiple of 12.56x. That multiple has since compressed to roughly 5–6x based on 2026 revenue estimates.

The stock had actually climbed about 9% the Tuesday before earnings, following Trump’s State of the Union address, before giving back all of those gains and more.

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