XRP price retests range lows as open interest crashes 70% — volatility expansion next?

XRP price is retesting range lows as open interest drops 70%, putting $1.30 support in focus.

XRP (XRP) is back near the bottom of its range amid continued selling pressure. At press time, the token trades at $1.34, down 4.4% in the past 24 hours.

The seven-day range is between $1.28 and $1.48. XRP has fallen 50% over the last week and is now 63% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65. Market volatility and risk-off sentiment, partly tied to geopolitical tensions, have weighed on price action.

Open interest drops sharply

A Mar. 3 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha shows a major shift in the futures market. Total XRP open interest across exchanges fell from $660 million on Oct. 6, 2025, to $203 million on March 3, 2026. That’s a 70% drop in five months.

Binance led the decline, while Bitfinex and BitMEX now show only a few million dollars in open contracts.

Open interest tracks the number of active futures positions. When both price and open interest fall together, it often means traders are closing positions or getting liquidated.

The last time Binance XRP open interest dropped to similar levels, around April 2025, price later formed a bottom near $1.80 before rallying. Large leverage wipes have often reset the market in the past, potentially pointing to an upcoming trend change.

XRP price technical analysis

On the daily chart, XRP is testing the $1.30–$1.35 support zone. This level forms the base of the current multi-month range. A daily close below $1.30 would break the structure and expose $1.00–$1.10 as the next downside area. If support holds, price stays in consolidation.

The trend still shows lower highs and lower lows. XRP trades below declining moving averages. For a real shift, price must reclaim the $1.50–$1.60 supply zone and break the last lower high.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off and are now tightening. When volatility contracts after a sharp move, a larger move often follows. Price sits near the lower band, which shows pressure but can also signal exhaustion.

RSI bounced from oversold levels and is now near 40. Momentum is still weak below 50. A push above 50 would show stronger buying strength.

The current area also holds past liquidity. Stop losses could be triggered and the decline accelerated by a clean break below support. Short covering could lead to a rapid bounce if sellers don’t push lower. 

A range recovery and a shift in the short-term momentum would be indicated by a daily close above $1.50. If the price closed below $1.30, there would likely be more drops. XRP is at a crucial turning point, and volatility may soon increase.