A lone billionaire took down a Republican congressman over a years-long personal grudge, according to sources.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), once seen as a rising star in the GOP, became the first House incumbent to be ousted in the 2026 midterm election cycle, losing to hardline conservative state Rep. Steve Toth, and sources told Axios that a Donald Trump megadonor was "hellbent" on ending his legislative career.
"Texas banker Robert Marling's role in funding an anti-Crenshaw advertising blitz starkly illustrates how a lone billionaire can banish a member of Congress," Axios reported.
Marling poured $675,000 into the GOP primary – about two-thirds of the amount spent by a super PAC that opposed Crenshaw – and bankrolled an avalanche of TV ads and mailers that overwhelmed the southeastern Texas congressional district that a source said played a "massive" role in the lawmaker's defeat.
"Short of Robert's involvement, Dan would be re-elected," said another source.
The sources agreed there's been an ongoing feud between Crenshaw and Marling, but there's some dispute over its origins.
"Sources close to Marling say it started several years ago, when he invited Crenshaw to appear at an annual conservative youth summit," Axios reported. "Crenshaw said he would speak only if audience members wore masks, so the story goes, and Marling said no."
A person close to Crenshaw denied that account, and the congressman's team also denied the congressman told a person close to the billionaire that he wanted to put Marling's "head through a wall."
"A Crenshaw ally said the bad blood has to do with the peculiarities of Texas' 2nd District — specifically that Crenshaw represents the Harris County (Houston) portion of the district, and Marling resides in the Montgomery County portion, in Houston's northern suburbs," Axios reported. "This source said there's been a rivalry between the two counties, and that Marling wanted the district's representative to be from Montgomery County, which he found in Toth."
However, other sources say the billionaire simply didn't think Crenshaw was conservative enough.
Marling worked his connections, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), to get word to Trump to hold off on endorsing Crenshaw, which he never did, and he donated $200,000 in the last week of the primary campaign that paid for an ad featuring Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) endorsing Toth.
"Cruz had several reasons for getting involved in the race, including his longstanding relationship with Marling," Axios reported. "Marling has been a donor to Cruz since 2011, and was a major backer of his 2016 presidential bid. Cruz attended the funeral of Marling's daughter in 2022."
A pair of conservative organizations bankrolled by Marling – Club for Growth and Turning Point USA – also contributed to the Cruz ad, and Crenshaw was ultimately crushed by Toth – 55 percent to 40 percent – and the billionaire celebrated Tuesday's results as he vacationed with his wife in the Caribbean.
"This is so great," he texted a friend.
But the lack of comment from members of the Republican Party could prove costly, according to analyst Russell Payne. The Salon correspondent believes a clear route must be taken by members of either party should they wish to secure an election victory come November.
Payne wrote, "While Republicans have not seen the same magnitude of a shift [as the Democratic Party], there have still been changes: sympathies for Israelis have fallen to 70%, while sympathies with Palestinians have risen to 13%.
"Taken together, the Republican support for war and the Democrats’ status quo approach to Israel and Palestine paint a picture of two parties that are out of step with voters when it comes to American policy in the Middle East."
This change in public mood and opposition to the war in Iran could affect the midterms far more than first expected, Payne believes. James Zogby, a former member of the DNC and the founder of the Arab American Institute, said change in the run-up to the midterms is unlikely.
Zogby noted that "despite increasingly critical perspectives on Israel gaining traction in the GOP, no coalitional organization exists to pressure elected Republicans on this issue."
He added, "The difference here is that on the Democratic side, there is a real coalition that has been around since ‘84 and it does include my community. It also includes progressive Jews and includes Black voters, Latino voters, Asian voters increasingly and young kids, college kids."
Payne added, "What’s unclear is whether and to what degree either party will stand to suffer or gain politically from their opponents’ positions in the midterms.
"While it’s commonly recited that voters don’t normally make their decisions based on a party or candidate’s foreign policy, an unpopular new war in the Middle East, which an ally ostensibly dragged the U.S. into, may push the issue higher in terms of voters’ priorities.
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Neither GOP candidate, Krugman believes, has much of a chance at uniting their party, but Talarico faces an uphill battle in getting swing voters on his side. The economist, writing in his Substack, explained why the Democratic Party may still fall short of turning Texas blue.
He wrote, "I don’t mean to say that Democrats have no chance of turning Texas blue. While Texas has mainly had extensive growth rather than rapid growth in productivity or per capita income, it has been transformed in one important respect: It’s now home to not one but two world-class metropolitan hubs in Houston and Dallas.
"Indeed, the maturing of those metropolises is certainly the main reason that Texas has become more culturally and professionally sophisticated.
"The only other red state with comparable metropolitan depth is Georgia, which I’ve circled along with Texas in the chart. Georgia has Atlanta — and Georgia, which has a similar education level to Texas, has become a genuine swing state.
"The rise of Texas urbanism hasn’t yet altered the outcomes of state-level races, in which Republicans have had a lock on power. But, as in Georgia, that could change."
Krugman went on to suggest that, even with the tide turning in the Democratic Party's favor, it would still be an uphill battle to win a majority.
"So the point here is that while Texas could be shifting towards the blue zone, it won’t come easily," Krugman warned. "It won’t be a simple matter of a state becoming more progressive as a result of economic progress.
"In other words, Texas is not about to become New Jersey, or even Colorado. But with the right Democratic candidates, who can straddle the divide between urban Democrats and non-urban Republicans, it could become Georgia. And maybe, just maybe, Texas could blaze the trail for Democrats in other deep red states."
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“The Trump administration’s latest venture, Freedom 250, continues to raise serious and troubling questions about whether access to the president or official government events is for sale to the highest bidders,” said Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA). “And if the administration is commingling taxpayer dollars with other funds in an unaccountable private entity run by the president’s allies, it is an open invitation for corruption. We need answers.”
Freedom 250's programming reflects Trump's personal priorities rather than national commemoration. "Freedom Trucks" — six customized semitrucks with conservative educational content — traverse red states on $10 million in federal funds. A "Freedom Plane" tours the country with historic documents. Planned events include a national prayer service on the National Mall, an IndyCar race, and a UFC fight outside the White House on Trump's birthday.
The Treasury transferred a $10 million grant intended for America250's Freedom Trucks program to Freedom 250, effectively funneling congressionally appropriated funds to Trump's personal project.
Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy organization, has called for a congressional investigation into a recent New York Times report that Freedom 250 donors were offered access to the president if they gave $1 million or more, but Freedom 250 spokeswoman Rachel Reisner referred questions about federal funding to the Interior Department.
[The president] “is deeply grateful for the support of his donors, but unlike the politicians of the past, he can’t be bought,” Reisner said in a statement. “As we approach this historic milestone in our nation’s founding, we will not be deterred by any partisan outrage or political theater."
The conservative media organization PragerU volunteered to produce all video and educational content for the Freedom Trucks after White House officials developed a vision for the project and worked with the right-wing Hillsdale College to develop the displays, but PragerU chief executive Marissa Streit insisted the exhibits would show a balanced view of history.
“I believe we need to teach and talk about both the negative things that have happened in our country as well as the positive,” she said.
Ethics expert Richard Painter said the tensions are starkly different from the approach taken during the 1976 bicentennial under President Gerald Ford, who was mindful of impropriety following the Watergate scandal.
“The one thing our taxpayer funds should not be used for is politicizing the 250th anniversary of the founding of the country,” said Painter, the chief White House ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration. “One of the things [the founders] were most afraid of is faction and political parties destroying our democracy. The celebrations here shouldn’t be owned by one political party or another.”
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