Trump Tariff Refund Comes to Billions, What’s For the Crypto Market?

• Tariff refunds are between $168 billion and $182 billion.
• Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff, likely to be revised to 15%.
• The crypto market is expected to record higher volatility.

The estimated refund is somewhere between $168 billion and $182 billion on tariffs collected over the last 12 months. However, there is still a concern about the recent tariffs that US President Donald Trump has announced. The crypto market may record higher volatility if they are combined with the ongoing geopolitical issues.

Tariff Refund for Billions of Dollars

As per the order of Court of International Trade Senior Judge Richard ‌Eaton, importers have been asked to commence the process of refunding the amount collected through higher tariff. Higher rates were imposed by Donald Trump through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act from February 4, 2025, to February 23, 2026.

Richard, in a statement, has clarified that the amount collected unlawfully has to be refunded. The mechanism for the same remains unclear to this moment; however, the court has sought an initial idea on the mechanism by this Friday.

New Tariffs in Action

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs on February 20, 2026, under a 6-3 ruling against their imposition. Trump called it a terrible idea, but soon took to bring out a rate of 10% under Section 122 of ⁠the Trade Act of 1974. The rate could be revised to 15%, with no certainty on what grounds or when.

If imposed, there remains a possibility of inflation, especially when combined with the ongoing geopolitical scenarios. As for the US, it is estimated that the 10% rate could generate $35 billion of net revenue in 150 days, following which it would require an extension. At 15%, the number could rise to $50 billion.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is already going through medium volatility, given that most of the tokens have retraced their movements back to lower values. BTC and ETH are back to move around $70k and $2k, applicable in the same order. For BTC, Kalshi Traders have forecasted a possibility of going as low as $60k. If so, the crypto market could follow with more dips.

BTC liquidation over 24 hours stands at $121.88 million. ETH liquidation comes to $51.67 million – both including short and long liquidations, according to data from Coinglass.

A geopolitical issue that could possibly impact the crypto market is the current Middle East conflict. It comes with the attached risk of higher gas and oil prices. Needless to say, the content of this article is neither a recommendation nor advice. Do thorough research and risk assessment.

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