The Week Ahead: Inflation Data and Oracle Earnings Scheduled as Oil Prices Hit Multiyear Highs

TLDR

• Oil prices surged over 36% in a week, hitting above $91, after the Iran war disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping
• The S&P 500 is now down 1.5% for the year; the Nasdaq has lost 3.7% since January
• The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, well below forecasts of 55,000 added
• Oracle reports earnings Tuesday; Adobe and Hewlett Packard Enterprise also report this week
• CPI data drops Wednesday and PCE index Friday, ahead of next week’s Fed rate decision

US markets closed Friday deep in the red, capping one of the worst weeks of 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday alone, putting it down 1.5% for the year. The Nasdaq dropped 1.6% Friday and is now off 3.7% since January 1. The Dow shed around 450 points on the day.

The driver behind most of the market pain is the ongoing war in Iran, which has choked off oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil in normal times.

With that transit now halted, around 16 million barrels are stranded with nowhere to go, according to data from Vortexa. Storage is full. Producers are cutting back. Oil prices have surged more than 36% in a single week, hitting above $91 per barrel — the biggest weekly gain since at least 1985.

Inflation and the Fed

Goldman Sachs estimates that if oil stays elevated for several months, year-over-year headline inflation could climb back toward 3%. The Fed’s target is 2%.

Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed back above 4.14%. Expectations for rate cuts have pulled back as traders weigh the risk that rising crude prices could slow inflation progress. Fed officials including Neel Kashkari and John Williams said it is too early to assess the full impact.

Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index for February and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January will give the clearest read yet on prices ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.

Jobs Miss Adds to Concern

The February jobs report added more pressure. The US economy lost 92,000 jobs, missing forecasts of 55,000 added. Unemployment rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in January.

Some economists pointed to one-off factors, including a Kaiser Permanente labor strike that removed 37,000 jobs from the count. BNP Paribas economist Andrew Husby called the result a product of “special factors.”

Others disagreed. Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management described “a bifurcated market — slower macro growth paired with accelerating technological transformation.” Jack Dorsey’s Block cut 4,000 jobs in February, with its CFO attributing the layoffs directly to artificial intelligence.

Oracle reports earnings Tuesday. Its stock has lost more than half its value since September highs. The company recently announced plans to raise $50 billion for AI data center construction. Adobe and Hewlett Packard Enterprise also report this week, alongside Dollar General, Li Auto, and Nio.

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