Daily Market Update: Stock Futures Fall 2% and Bitcoin Holds Steady as Oil Prices Spike

TLDR

• Oil prices jumped above $110 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate rising roughly 17–18% in 24 hours due to Middle East conflict
• Asian stocks fell hard — Japan’s Nikkei dropped over 6% and South Korea’s Kospi slid about 8%
• US stock futures followed, with Dow futures down around 2.1% and S&P 500 futures off 2%
• Bitcoin stayed near $67,000 with little panic selling; Ether and Solana posted small gains
• Prediction markets put a 76% chance crude hits $120 by end of March; Fed rate odds unchanged at 98% for a March pause

Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday after escalating conflict in the Middle East raised fears about supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed roughly 17–18% in 24 hours, breaking past $110 a barrel.

The fighting has raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries about 20% of the world’s daily crude supply. Kuwait confirmed production cuts, and output in Iraq reportedly fell by around 70%.

Asian stock markets opened deep in the red. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 6%, and South Korea’s Kospi dropped about 8%. Traders in import-dependent economies quickly repriced energy costs.

US stock futures also dropped at the start of the week. Dow futures fell around 2.1%, or more than 1,000 points. S&P 500 futures slid 2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped roughly 2.3%.

Last week was already rough for US stocks. The Dow closed its worst weekly drop in nearly a year, falling about 3%. The S&P 500 was down around 2%, and the Nasdaq finished off more than 1%.

Crypto Holds Its Ground

Bitcoin traded near $67,000 with little sign of panic. Ether and Solana posted modest gains, suggesting crypto investors are treating this as an oil-specific shock, not a wider market crisis.

Funding rates on oil perpetual futures on Hyperliquid turned negative, a sign that some traders are betting prices will pull back even as spot prices keep rising.

Polymarket data shows a 76% probability that crude oil reaches $120 by the end of March.

Fed and Inflation Watch

Higher oil prices add to inflation pressure, but markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. Polymarket contracts show a 98% chance of no change at the March 18 meeting.

The chance of a 25-basis-point cut by end of April sits at just 12%.

Investors are watching Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data closely. Neither reading will fully capture the latest oil spike yet.

On the earnings front, Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports after Monday’s close. Oracle, Adobe, and Dick’s Sporting Goods are also due later in the week.

Global benchmark Brent crude climbed about 17% to above $108, closely tracking the WTI move.

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