Increasing Volumes Also Among Retail Investors

In recent days, something potentially very interesting is happening in the Bitcoin market. 

This is a dynamic that proves to be interesting because it concerns volumes, not price, and it could also

anticipate potential price movements likely to be bullish. 

To be honest, there is no certainty that significant price movements are about to occur, nor that they will be bullish, but the volumes at least seem to indicate that this hypothesis should be considered plausible at the current state. 

Volumes

In this context, “trading volumes” specifically refers to the total, calculated in US dollars, of all trades occurring in the markets between Bitcoin and dollars (BTCUSD) or between Bitcoin and stablecoins in dollars (primarily BTCUSDT and BTCUSDC). 

When volumes are low, it means there are few movements, or that these consist of transactions generally of small size. At the beginning of February, when there was a sharp drop in the price of BTC plummeting to around $60,000, the trading volumes on Bitcoin were significantly higher than the monthly average for this period. 

However, starting from Sunday, February 8, they fell below the average, and in fact, remained there until Sunday, March 1, with small and rare exceptions that are absolutely negligible. 

The turning point occurred starting last week, with the beginning of March, marked by a sequence of three days above the monthly average. 

It is noteworthy that in two of these cases, the price ultimately ended up rising. Therefore, these were two days in which not only were the trading volumes above average, but also the buying pressure exceeded the selling pressure. 

It should be noted, however, that these are not particularly high volumes, just slightly above the monthly average, but in stark contrast to what had occurred in the previous weeks. 

Retail Investors

In financial markets, “retail” refers to individual investors who primarily trade on their own. 

They are the opposite of the so-called “institutionals,” which are the large investment firms operating with substantial capital. 

There is a significant difference between retail and institutional investors: retail investors often operate in an amateurish manner, with limited information to base their analyses and strategies on, and especially in many cases with little to no financial expertise. 

On the contrary, not only do institutional investors generally operate with large (or enormous) capital, but they also do so in a professional, organized, accurate, and intelligent manner, with extensive information and in-depth analysis, and above all, a great deal of expertise. 

This often leads retail investors to make decisions that turn out to be counterproductive, while institutional investors, on the other hand, frequently operate in a prudent and effective manner. 

Moreover, in the Bitcoin market, the enormous capital with which institutional investors operate allows them, in some cases, to even manipulate its price, although not often and generally not for long periods. 

Due to this, these large operators are often referred to as “whales” instead of institutional investors, both to emphasize the fact that they move large amounts of capital and because, in theory, among the whales moving significant capital, there might also be a few retail investors with substantial liquidity. 

The Whales

There are certain specific Bitcoin markets that are dominated by whales. 

These are markets where retail investors generally do not operate, contrasting with those markets that are favored by retail investors and almost never used by whales. 

This allows, by analyzing and comparing these two markets, to get an idea of how capital is utilized by whales and retail, separately. 

For example, during 2025, whales primarily bought BTC when its price was within a range between $90,000 and $100,000, but then sold en masse when it exceeded $115,000. 

Retail investors, on the other hand, have consistently alternated between buying and selling phases, without paying particular attention to potential price developments. 

It should be noted that every time someone makes a sale at a given price, there must necessarily be someone who has made a purchase of the same amount at the same price. 

If retail investors concentrated their sales between $111,000 and $115,000, above this latter figure they primarily purchased. 

The Turning Point

Everything obviously changed starting in November, when the price of Bitcoin began to decline. 

For example, as the price dropped from over $120,000 to $60,000, whales sold significantly, particularly between the $85,000 and $95,000 price range, while retail investors sold at almost every price point, driven by sheer fear. 

Until early February, the situation hadn’t changed much, when whale trading volumes recorded two peaks significantly above the monthly average. 

The first occurred on February 2nd, with an increasing price, while the second lasted two days, between February 5th and 6th, with a declining price on the first day and rising on the second. 

During those days, however, retail volumes, although above average, were concentrated on days when the price was declining. 

But there’s more.

Starting from Friday, February 6, the whales began to buy, with average volumes but particularly concentrated during slight price upticks. 

In particular, they focused their purchases within a price range between $67,000 and $70,000. 

Instead, retail investors have continued to alternate between buying and selling, with purchases starting above $69,000.

To all this, it should be added that just between yesterday and today, there seems to have been another turning point.

Indeed, the whales have resumed buying, even above $70,000, with volumes slightly above average. 

It seems that retail investors are also buying, even though they started only at a later stage. And retail investors are doing so with above-average volumes. 

In other words, the decidedly negative situation that developed in recent months now seems to be behind us. It is not certain that the current situation will necessarily last long, but at least the collapse of recent months appears to have halted for now.