How Will Crypto Market Move amid Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Options Expiry and US PCE Inflation Data Today?

Crypto market participants are on high alert today ahead of over $2.2 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP options expiry and US PCE inflation data release. A slight drop in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 15 indicates traders remain cautious despite some catalysts, such as oil reserve release, for upside momentum.

Crypto Market Braces for Over $2.2 Billion Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Options Expiry

According to Deribit data, almost 27K BTC options of notional value $1.9 billion are set to expire on March 13. The put/call ratio is 0.97, indicating a neutral-to-bearish sentiment.

Open interest (OI) is heavily concentrated on puts between $55,000 and $60,000, contrasted by calls at $75,000 to $80,000. BTC 25 delta skew is also falling, indicating a shift from panic-driven hedging to a calmer crypto market sentiment.

Bitcoin max pain price is at $69,000, below the current spot price of around $71,567. However, the probability of Bitcoin options expiring above $71,000 is almost 86%.

Over 186K ETH options of notional value of almost $394 million to expire today, with a put/call ratio of 1.20. The max pain price is at $2000, signaling a potential drop to the strike price. However, the probability of expiring above the $2,100 strike price is 71% currently.

Moreover, XRP options worth $8.85 million are to expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.13. The max pain price is at $1.40, below the current market price of $1.42. but traders are betting for a move towards $1.50 in the coming days.

Crypto Market Traders Await US PCE Inflation Data Today

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the January US PCE inflation report today. Crypto market participants eye potential price swings in Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP, following a steady US CPI inflation data.

Economists expect the core PCE inflation to come in at 0.4% month-over-month (MoM), the same as in the previous month. However, the year-over-year (YoY) print is projected to rise 3.1%, above 3% in December.

Meanwhile, headline PCE is predicted at 0.3% MoM, declining from 0.4% last month. This keeps US PCE inflation steady at 2.9% despite oil price spikes amid the US-Iran war.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has publicly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell for an emergency Fed rate cut ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Trump emphasized the need for immediate action to counter rising inflation risks, particularly from surging oil prices.

However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the upcoming meeting. Goldman Sachs revised Fed rate cut forecasts, predicting the first cut in September, followed by another in December.

Crypto market traders reacted as Bitcoin hit $72,000 again after the US issued a 30-day waiver for ​countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it is an effort to stabilize ‌global energy markets impacted by the US-Iran war.