Trading Moments: Crude oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields all rose amid the war, while Bitcoin held steady above $70,000 despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Brent crude oil prices broke through $100 per barrel again, with the market repricing the risk of supply disruptions. Crude oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields all rose to their highest levels since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. All three major US stock indices fell by more than 1.5% , with most sectors except energy under pressure.

The market's main concern right now is the potential for a further escalation of the US-Iran conflict . Both Trump and Iran's new supreme leader have made tough statements, making de-escalation unlikely in the short term. Former British ambassador to Iran, Richard Dalton, stated that the US-Israel conflict "lacks a clear plan" and could lead to the situation spiraling out of control. Goldman Sachs warned that if the conflict continues, Brent crude oil prices could break through the historical high of $147.50 per barrel set in 2008.

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that US government intervention in the oil futures market could trigger an "epic catastrophe." In response to soaring oil prices, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter urgently announced that the US Navy would escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil stranded at sea to stabilize prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that the war with Iran has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, further pushing up global inflation expectations.

With soaring oil prices and rising inflationary pressures, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been shattered. Traders are now pricing in less than 25 basis points of a rate cut in 2026, further weakening market confidence in the Fed restarting its easing cycle. Analysts believe that rising energy and food prices will have a greater impact on future inflation data, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates to address the risks.

The "weekend effect" amplified market volatility. Investors, fearing unforeseen events over the weekend, opted to exit the market, leading to significant capital outflows. The dual pressures of high oil prices and rising US Treasury yields may reshape market trading logic, with the energy sector gaining popularity while risk assets remain under pressure. Analysts warn that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, trading strategies developed over the past two years may need to be completely rewritten.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $62,000 to $72,000 range for over a month. Although the escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the 1.85 million new jobless claims in the US have exacerbated the macroeconomic gloom, Bitcoin has defied macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions, with its price remaining above $70,000 for four consecutive days.

Regarding options, data from Adam@Greeks.liv shows that BTC options with a notional value of $1.8 billion expired today, with the largest price drop at $69,000. However, it's worth noting that the options expiring today represent only 6% of total open interest, the lowest level in recent years, indicating extremely low trading activity in Bitcoin. However, the largest price drop this week did not continue to decline; for the first time in months, the downward trend has rebounded.

The current BTC price is stuck between the realized price of $54,400 and the true market average of $78,000. After a brief 17% rebound from below $60,000, it has found temporary support at the very short-term cost line of 1 to 4 weeks. However, there is resistance at $78,880 from 2.42 million coins held by long-term holders of 1 to 2 years. On March 20th, the options market saw $180 million in Gamma risk (options risk indicator) accumulated at $74,000 .

The $62,000 to $70,000 miner shutdown price range is facing severe testing, with the macro support levels of the 200-week moving average ($68,000) and the 300-week moving average ($57,000) in jeopardy. However, the BTC/Gold ratio is showing bullish divergence at the key support level of 12-13. Coupled with the historical pattern of the S&P 500 rebounding 19% after a 16% pullback in the US midterm election year and BTC rebounding 54% after a 56% plunge, CryptoQuant's bullish score index has jumped from 10 to 30, indicating that the market is brewing hope for a reversal amidst the panic.

Bearish view

The core logic of the short sellers is that the current rise is merely a dead cat bounce and a liquidity cleanup, miners are in dire straits and bleeding, and the downward trend in the macroeconomy has not been reversed.

• KillaXBT warns that if the price fails to hold above key support, it will inevitably bleed downwards, with a macro target below 60K.

• Murphy anticipates the weak rebound will be limited to between $74,000 and $79,000, and he plans to short decisively when it reaches that range.

• Greeny points out that the miners' lifeline is being breached, and the 200-week moving average is an extremely dangerous false support; it's only a matter of time before it falls to even lower levels.

• Donaxbt bluntly stated that the current trend is a typical "dead cat bounce," and it is expected that after hitting the upper resistance, it will continue to fall in line with the macro trend.

• LP_NXT observed significant selling pressure above and believes the market is more likely to test deeper liquidity levels.

bullish view

The core logic of the bullish camp is that the technical indicators have issued an unusually strong buy signal, and institutional spot buyers are frantically accumulating shares regardless of price.

• Shang pointed out that TradFi buying has made a strong comeback, and geopolitical safe-haven funds are voting with their feet, shifting from traditional safe-haven assets to the crypto market on a large scale.

• Sykodelic emphasized that the current trend is by no means a repeat of 2022, with multiple technical indicators forming golden crosses and buy signals, indicating that the market will inevitably rise in the future.

• Daan Crypto Trades stated that the market has seen its first solid weekly bullish candle in nearly two months, indicating that bottom support has emerged.

• Titan of Crypto asserts that once Bitcoin breaks strongly through the upper real market average price resistance zone, its downtrend will be completely over, ushering in a macro reversal.

Market Dynamics

Yesterday, a whale attempted to exchange $50 million worth of USDT for AAVE on the Aave platform, but ignored slippage warnings and ultimately received only 324 AAVE, losing nearly $50 million. This slippage disaster sparked fierce debate within the industry regarding DeFi security safeguards. Aave founder Stani.eth responded urgently, confirming that the system had fulfilled its warning obligations, but out of compassion, promised to refund $600,000 in transaction fees and called on the industry to establish more robust user protection mechanisms.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 13)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$53.8681 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: +$72.3677 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.

• XRP ETF: -$6.0806 million

  SOL ETF: +$3.9248 million

• Fear of Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Panic)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, ENSO, NOM

• Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency stocks generally rose, with AI stocks leading the gains at over 7%.

24-hour liquidation A total of 61,671 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $197 million, including $76.62 million in BTC liquidations, $52.58 million in ETH liquidations, and $10.78 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Upbit will discontinue Solar (SXP) and Oasys (OAS) on March 13.

• Binance Wallet will launch the Unitas Labs (UP) subscription on March 13.

• The deadline for claiming ROBO tokens is March 13th.

• Coinbase adds Billions (BILL) to its listing roadmap

• Binance will launch EWYUSDT U-margined perpetual contracts tracking a South Korean stock market ETF.

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens, worth about $10.5 million, on March 13.

• WBT will unlock approximately 81.5 million tokens on March 13, worth approximately $4.12 billion.

• Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens, worth about $3.6 million, on March 15.

• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens, worth about $4.8 million, on March 15.

• CONX will unlock approximately 1.32 million tokens, worth approximately $15.27 million, on March 15.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pi Network (up 29.7%), ASI Alliance (up 22.6%), Render (up 20.1%), River (up 17.3%), and Bittensor (up 14%).

Hot News

• Analysts: The whale that lost $50 million due to high slippage is suspected of being linked to Garrett Jin.

• The Federal Reserve will launch a 90-day consultation period for Basel III proposals, and Bitcoin faces a 1250% risk weight.

• After a four-month hiatus, a certain whale spent 20.058 million sUSDS to build up its ETH holdings on the blockchain.

• Bitmine appears to have purchased another 30,000 ETH today, equivalent to approximately $61.89 million.

• A wallet suspected to belong to Trend Research borrowed and shorted 27,000 ETH four hours ago.

• A whale withdrew another 10,421 ETH from Kraken, bringing its total ETH hoarding over the past three days to 73,744.98 ETH.

• US Senator: Crypto Market Structure Bill Not Expected to Pass Before April

• Binance Alpha will remove tokens such as MIRROR, SHARDS, and FST from its recommendation list.